WASHINGTON, DC, US — While ocean freight rates for shipping bulk commodities, including grain, saw a seasonal drop from the fourth to first quarter, it is difficult to predict what kind of impact tariffs and restrictions on Chinese-built vessels will have, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report (GTR) by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Ocean freight rates are currently moderate, but they could fall further amid weak global demand for foreign goods, according to the GTR. Global dry bulk capacity is up 14% from December 2020 to 1.041 deadweight tons (DWT).

“Typically, ocean freight rates fall when vessel capacity supply is ample,” the GTR said.

Possible upward rate pressure could come from an increase in Indian coal consumption and demand in the second quarter. Brazil also is expected to export massive soybean volumes to China in the same quarter, it said. China’s consumer demand for manufactured goods may see a boost, driving the demand for iron ore and putting pressure on bulk ocean freight rates.

For the week ended May 1, the rate for shipping a tonne of grain from the US Gulf to Japan was $46.25 — 1% more than the first available rate at the beginning of the year and 25% less than for the same week in 2024, according to the GTR.

The rate from the PNW to Japan was $27.25 per tonne — 3% more than the first available rate at the beginning of the year and 18% less than for the same week in 2024, it said.

In first quarter 2025, ocean freight rates for shipping bulk grain (wheat, corn, and soybeans) from the US Gulf to Japan averaged $46.19 per tonnne, a drop of 7% from the fourth quarter 2024 and 23% down from the first quarter 2024.

From the US Gulf to Europe, rates averaged $22.53 per tonne — down 5% quarter to quarter, down 24% year to year, and down 11% from average, the GTR said.

From the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to Japan, rates averaged $26.89 per tonne  — down 7% quarter to quarter, down 16% year to year, and down 16% from average.