ROME, ITALY — Given its dependence on exports to the United States, Italian agricultural products will bear the brunt of potential tariffs compared to other countries in the European Union, according to a study by the Confederation of Italian Farmers. 

Agri-food exports to the United States have grown by 158% in 10 years, and the United States accounts for nearly 12% of Italy’s global agri-food exports. The potential for a trade war between the United States and European Union is heating up with steel, aluminum, whiskey, wine and agriculture products in the crosshairs, as the nations announce tariffs, retaliatory fees and reciprocal actions. 

“There are Italian products in danger much more than others, because they are so dependent on exports to the United States,” the Confederation of Italian Farmers said. “And the same goes for the regions, with Sardinia and Tuscany particularly exposed to losses with the new US tariffs.”

Products most at risk include cider, cheese, wine and olive oil, all of which are top Italian exports to the United States. Also at risk are pasta and baked foods exports, it said. Italy exports mainly consumer products to the United States, while the United States exports mostly bulk commodities to Italy, according to the International Trade Administration (ITA). 

In 2023, Italy imported $1.5 billion in agricultural products from the United States and exported $7.4 billion of products to the United States. 

Italy’s economic strength is in the processing and manufacturing of goods, made with imported raw materials and ingredients. It re-exports the value-added Italian products to top trading partners that along with the United States include Germany, France, Spain and Switzerland. 

Overall, Italy’s agricultural sector is a strong contributor to the country’s economy, accounting for about 2% of the gross domestic product, while the agri-food system contributes 15% to GDP, according to the European Commission. The industry has a unique mixture of climates, soils and topography, giving it one of the most diversified agricultural outputs in the EU. 

It is also one of the main agricultural producers and food processors in the EU, with grains, soybeans, meat and dairy produced in the northern regions and fruits, vegetables, olive oil, wine and durum wheat in the south. Italy’s main crops include wheat, corn, barley, rice and oats. 

The nation has 1.1 million farms, which cover 12.6 million hectares of the country’s agricultural area, according to the commission. More than 50% of total area in agricultural use is classified as mountainous or with natural constraints. 

Crop production, trade

In 2024, the volume of goods produced by the agricultural sector increased 1.4% while sale prices rose 0.8%, resulting in a total output of the sector increasing by 2.2% to 74.6 billion euro ($81.3 billion), according to the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat). 

The volume of crops increased 1.5% but this was mostly due to increases in the volume of potatoes, fruit, fresh vegetables and wine. The volume of cereals dropped 7.1% and the prices also dropped significantly, Istat said. Animal output was stable with a slight increase in the overall volume, with positive results for cows and animal products such as milk and eggs. 

The spring season in 2024 was the wettest on record since 1978, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The rain negatively impacted pollination and delayed harvest operations. Excess humidity also affected the quality of winter crop grains. 

In the south of the country, the weather was warmer than usual with only occasional rainfall. Precipitations arrived too late to mitigate the negative impacts of the dry spell on durum wheat in growing regions such as Puglia or Sicily, where significant production losses are anticipated, the FAS said. 

Common wheat production in 2024 is estimated at 2.6 million tonnes, down from 3.04 million tonnes in 2023, while durum production reached 3.5 million tonnes in 2024, down from 3.7 million tonnes the previous year, according to data from the Agriculture and Rural Development department (AGRI) of the European Commission. 

Corn (maize) production also dropped to an estimated 4.93 million tonnes in 2024 from 5.3 million tonnes the previous year while soy held steady at 1.01 million tonnes compared to 1.06 million tonnes in 2023.

Italy is a net agricultural importer, bringing in most raw materials and ingredients from other countries. Top import partners include Germany, China, France, the Netherlands and Spain. 

In the 2023-24 marketing year, Italy imported 1.32 million tonnes of common wheat and 2.07 million tonnes of durum wheat. Corn imports reached 2.18 million tonnes, according to AGRI data. From July-January of the 2024-25 crop year, the nation already has imported 1.08 million tonnes of common wheat and 831,765 tonnes of durum. Corn imports thus far have totaled 1.6 million tonnes.

Flour production, usage 

Domestic production of soft wheat and durum is not sufficient to meet the needs of Italy’s milling industry. About 65% of the wheat the industry processes are imports.  

According to ITALMOPA, the Italian milling industry association, the industry has 290 mills that process 11.608 million tonnes of wheat per year. In 2023, the mills produced 8.151 million tonnes of flour, including 4.15 million tonnes of flour from soft wheat and 4 million tonnes of semolina from durum wheat. 

Of that flour, 295,000 tonnes were exported while 2.35 million tonnes were used in bread and substitutes; 801,000 tonnes in biscuits/leavened products; 395,000 tonnes for pizza, pastry and other; 210,000 tonnes for domestic uses and 95,000 tonnes for pasta. 

About 130,000 tonnes of semolina were exported while 3.648 million tonnes were used for pasta; 185,000 tonnes for bread and 42,000 tonnes for domestic uses, according to ITALMOPA. 

The European Flour Millers, the EU association for the sector, puts the level of capacity usage in Italy’s flour mills at 70%. Italy imports some 65% of the soft wheat it processes, mostly from France, Germany, Austria and Hungary inside the EU as well as the United States and Canada outside it. The non-EU origins account for 20% to 25% of imports.

Italian consumption of bread is estimated at 42 kilograms per person per year, with the average Italian’s consumption of flour at 66 kg each year.