OTTAWA, CANADA — Led by canola, production of oilseeds in Canada, which also includes soybeans and sunflower seeds, is forecast to reach 25.57 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26, marginally higher than the previous year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS sees canola production at 18.46 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 17.84 million tonnes year on year; soybeans at 7 million tonnes, down from 7.57 million tonnes; and 53,000 tonnes of sunflower seeds, a slight increase from 51,000 tonnes.

Despite a forecast for decreased area seeded compared to the previous year, canola is the main driver in the forecast for total oilseed production growth, supported by improvements in soil moisture conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta and expected yield improvement relative to 2024-25.

In 2025-26, total oil production is forecast to increase about 16,000 tonnes over the previous year to reach 5.3 million tonnes, of which canola oil will account for 4.94 million tonnes. Canada is expected to export 3.9 million tonnes of canola oil with the United States being the top buyer at 1.6 million tonnes, fed by demand from the renewable fuels sector.

“Strong canola oil demand from the United States is expected to continue as canola oil export prices average their lowest since 2020 and a weak Canadian dollar helps offset at least part of the newly imposed tariff costs for American importers,” the FAS said. “US importers will likely cover the tariffs for canola oil and pass any increased cost onto US fuel consumers.”

Total oil processing capacity in Canada has increased from 8.28 million tonnes in 2011 to 14.56 million in 2025, the FAS noted.

The volume of canola seed exported in 2025-26 is projected to fall to 6.5 million tonnes from the previous marketing year’s 7.3 million tonnes on lower domestic seed supply and increased domestic crush capacity in 2025. The share of seed supply going to exports is forecast to shrink to 32%, less than the three-year average of 36%. China is the top buyer of Canadian canola seeds.