ROME, ITALY — The benchmark for world food commodity prices saw its fastest increase in 18 months in September, with quotations up for all covered commodity groups, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations report released on Oct. 4.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 124.4 points in September, up 3% from August and 2.1% higher than its corresponding value a year earlier.
Registering the largest increase in September was the Sugar Price Index, rising by 10.4% due to worsening crop prospects in Brazil and concerns that India’s decision to lift restrictions on sugar cane use for ethanol production may affect export availabilities from the country.
The Cereal Price Index also increased by 3% during the month, led by higher wheat and corn export prices. International wheat prices increased due largely to concerns over excessively wet conditions in Canada and the European Union, though this was partly offset by competitively priced supplies from the Black Sea region. World corn prices also rose, influenced by low water levels on key transportation routes along the Madeira River in Brazil and the Mississippi River in the United States.
The FAO All Rice Price Index declined by 0.7%, partly reflecting generally quiet trading activities.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 4.6% from August, with higher quotations across the board for palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils. The rebound in soy oil quotations primarily was due to lower-than-expected crushings in the United States.
In a separate report, the FAO raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2.853 billion tonnes, reflecting upward revisions to rice and wheat output that outweighed a small reduction made to global coarse grains production. The new figure, also published on Oct. 4 in the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, remains moderately below the record output of 2023.
World wheat production is expected to increase by 0.5% from the previous year, as improved yield prospects in Australia more than compensate for a significant cut to the European Union’s forecast due to excessively wet conditions. By contrast, global production of coarse grains is expected to decline by 0.8% from 2023, with smaller crops in the European Union expected to outweigh higher corn output in the United States. World rice production in 2024-25 is forecast to rise by 0.9% and reach a record high of 539.2 million tonnes.
World cereal total utilization is forecast to rise by 0.4% to 2.853 billion tonnes, while global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 1.2%, with rice stocks seen increasing three times faster.
This results in a global cereal stocks-to-use ratio of 30.6%, which the FAO considers “adequate supply prospects in the new season.”