BRUSSELS, BELGIUM — In its latest forecast for the 2024 European Union/United Kingdom grain crop, released on June 10, COCERAL increased its projection slightly to 296 million tonnes, about 500,000 tonnes higher than the previous projection in March.

If realized, it would still be about 3.2 million tonnes higher than production in 2023, said COCERAL, a European association that focuses on agricultural trade.

Record rainfall late last year negatively impacted winter cereal sowing (wheat/barley) in northwestern Europe (France, Germany, UK, Baltics, Poland), while Spain’s production will substantially increase compared to 2023.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected to reach 134.5 million tonnes, compared to 134.1 million in the March forecast and down from 139.9 million last year. Barley production is projected slightly lower, falling to 59.9 million tonnes from 61.2 million in the previous forecast but up from 54.4 million in 2023. Denmark, Finland, and Spain will have better barley crops than in 2023. COCERAL said.

The preliminary EU27+UK corn crop is now seen at 64.8 million tonnes, up from 64.3 million forecast in March and 1 million tonnes higher than the 2023 output.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 19.4 million tonnes, compared to 20.2 million in the previous forecast and down from last year’s 21.4 million tonnes.