SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA — Australia will plant 23.48 million hectares for its winter crops, 0.3% higher than last season and 5% above the five-year average, but expected drier conditions following the transition to an El Niño climate cycle will bump harvest totals off recent record years, according to a new report from Rabobank.

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group’s “2023-24 Australian Winter Crop Outlook” forecasts planted area for wheat, barley and pulses to all be up for the season compared to the previous year, but with canola planting down.

Wheat area is projected to increase 2.9% to 13.44 million hectares (11.5% above the five-year average) with barley up 1.3% to 4.27 million hectares (down 10.4% on its five-year average). Area planted to pulses is expected to rise to 1.77 million hectares (down 8.4% on the five-year average).

Canola planting is forecast to be down 8.4% on last season to 3.32 million hectares, however, this still would be 21% above the five-year average.

Assuming normal seasonal rainfall, wheat production for 2023-24 could be expected to reach 29.9 million tonnes (down 24% on the previous year), barley 10.8 million tonnes (down 24%) and canola 5.4 million tonnes (down 35%).

Edward McGeoch, report co-author and Rabobank associate analyst, said that after three years of high rainfall and positive growing conditions in many cropping regions across Australia, which had resulted in a “streak of strong or record-breaking grains and oilseed production,” it was clear Australia was looking to lower harvest volumes in the year ahead with the move to drier seasonal conditions.

With climate models indicating a transition to weak El Niño conditions, “we could see production drop lower, potentially to the lowest total crop in four years (at 41.2 million tonnes),” McGeoch said.

Rabobank’s base export forecast has 15.7 million tonnes of wheat from the 2023-24 crop (not including carryover stock from 2022-23) heading to overseas markets on continued strong global demand. Barley exports are expected to reach 3.3 million tonnes and canola 3.4 million tonnes.

Export opportunities for the winter crop for Australia’s key market in Southeast Asia are expected to remain robust with favorable freight charges drifting back to 2020 levels.

“Australia’s harvest potential for the upcoming season is expected to be below the recent consecutive bumper harvests,” the report said. However, it could still be “a decent total,” keeping Australia “well positioned to support global wheat needs in 2023-24.”