MUMBAI, INDIA — India’s farm ministry increased wheat production estimates for 2022 even as other forecasters were predicting a smaller harvest because of a heatwave, Reuters reported.

The agency said on Aug. 17 that it expects the nation to harvest 106.84 million tonnes, up from 106.41 million tonnes in a previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated production at 99 million tonnes while traders estimate 95 million tonnes.

Wheat prices jumped 15% from recent lows that came after the government’s surprise ban on exports on May 14, Reuters said.

Lower wheat procurement by the government and rising local prices are indicating a sharp drop in production, according to a trader.

India's wheat procurement fell 57% from a year ago to 18.8 million tonnes.