SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL – Brazil is forecast to produce a record wheat crop of 9 million tonnes in the 2022-23 marketing year, according to a survey released on July 7 by Conab, the country’s food supply and statistics agency.

Part of the reason for the projected record is the largest planted area (2.9 million hectares) in 32 years. Brazilian farmers have planted about 65% of that total thus far. Conab is also projecting yields to increase by 10.3% from 2021-22 to 3 tonnes per hectare. The old crop year ends in July.

With a larger domestic wheat output expected, Conab projects imports in 2021-22 to decline by 500,000 tonnes to 6 million tonnes. Exports are estimated at 3.2 million tonnes. Exports are forecast to drop to 2.5 million tonnes in 2022-23, while imports are expected to rise back to 6.5 million tonnes.

Brazil’s record wheat production comes as the world faces supply concerns stemming from the war between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, as well as drought conditions in several of the world’s key wheat-producing regions.