BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA — Expected dry weather will mean a smaller wheat crop in Argentina in the 2022-23 marketing year, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange.

The Exchange said it projects wheat production to decline to 19 million tonnes, down from a record 22.1 million tonnes in 2021-22, as a La Niña weather pattern is expected to reduce rainfall in the coming months.

Argentina is among the world’s top wheat exporters and is a major supplier to South American countries. It is projected to export a record 14.5 million tonnes in 2021-22, which would rank seventh globally, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

The global wheat supply is declining due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, which account for nearly one-third of global wheat exports, as well as lower output projected due to weather in places like the United States and India.  

The USDA estimates that global wheat ending stocks will fall to 278 million tonnes in 2021-22, the lowest level since 2016-17.

A total of 6.35 million hectares of wheat are expected to be planted in 2022-23 in Argentina, about 550,000 hectares less than the previous season, the Rosario Grains Exchange said.