BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA – Argentina’s projected soybean production in the 2021-22 marketing year has been revised downward to 41 million tonnes as the result of dry weather, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The FAS previously forecast this year’s crop at 45 million tonnes. If realized, it would be the country’s smallest soybean crop since 2017-18 when 37.8 million tonnes were harvested.

“Despite rains in January which forestalled greater losses, high temperatures and dryness in December and early January caused considerable damage in key growing areas and depleted soil moisture reserves,” the FAS said.

It noted that a severe drought affecting the soybean crop in neighboring Paraguay is expected to limit Argentine imports to 2.2 million tonnes in 2021-22, less than half of last year’s total.

Thus, with supply declining, Argentina is projected to export only 3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021-22, down from the previous estimate of 3.7 million tonnes, and well below the 10-year trendline.

If FAS’ forecast is correct, Argentina would still rank as the world’s third largest soybean producer and fifth in exports.