WASHINGTON, DC, US – The US Department of Agriculture on Oct. 12 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2022, to 580 million bushels, down 35 million bushels from the September projection and down 265 million bushels, or 31%, from 845 million bushels in 2021. As forecast, the 2022 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 2008. The USDA projection compared with 576 million bushels as the average of pre-report trade estimates.
The USDA projected the 2021-22 wheat supply at 2.616 billion bushels, down 60 million bushels from the September outlook and down 341 million bushels, or 12%, from 2.957 billion bushels in 2020-21. The lower supply forecast was tied to a 51-million-bushel reduction in the 2021 all-wheat crop estimate to 1.646 billion bushels as reported in the Small Grains 2021 Summary issued on Sept. 30, and a 10-million-bushel reduction in the forecast for wheat imports in 2020-21 to 125 million bushels, based on the import pace to date.
The USDA forecast domestic disappearance of wheat in 2021-22 at 1.161 billion bushels, down 25 million from the previous projection but up 41 million bushels from 1.12 billion bushels in 2020-21, Most of the increase from the previous year was tied to a 40-million-bushel higher forecast for feed and residual use of wheat in 2021-22 at 135 million bushels. At the same time, the feed use projection was 25 million bushels lower than the September forecast for the current year.
Food use of wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 964 million bushels, unchanged from September and up 3 million bushels from 961 million bushels in 2020-21. As forecast, food use of wheat in the current year would compare with the record 964.1 million bushels in 2017-18. Seed use of wheat in 2021-22 was projected at 62 million bushels, unchanged from September but down 2 million bushels from 2020-21.
US wheat exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 875 million bushels, unchanged from September but down 117 million bushels, or 12%, from 992 million bushels in 2020-21.
The USDA made several adjustments to its 2021-22 supply-and-demand forecasts for wheat by class.
The 2022 hard red winter wheat carryover was projected at 311 million bushels, down 36 million from the September forecast and down 117 million bushels, or 27%, from 428 million bushels in 2021. Domestic supply of hard red winter wheat for 2021-22 was estimated at 1.182 billion bushels, down 26 million bushels from September mostly because of the smaller 2021 production estimate at 749 million bushels, down 28 million bushels from the September number. Domestic use of hard red winter wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 511 million bushels, up 5 million from September and up 27% from 402 million in the previous year. Hard red winter wheat exports in 2021-22 were projected at 360 million bushels, up 5 million from September and up 20 million bushels from 2020-21.
The 2022 hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 113 million bushels, up 2 million from the September outlook but down 122 million bushels, or 52%, from 235 million bushels in 2021. Hard red spring wheat supply in 2021-22 was forecast at 592 million bushels, down 13 million bushels from September as the 2021 production estimate was lowered 8 million bushels, to 297 million, and imports were lowered 5 million bushels, to 60 million bushels. Domestic use of hard red spring wheat in 2021-22 was forecast at 254 million bushels, down 15 million from September, and exports were projected at 225 million bushels, unchanged from September and compared with 284 million bushels in 2020-21.
The USDA projected the 2022 soft red winter wheat carryover at 94 million bushels, down 5 million from September but up 9 million bushels from 2021. The 2021-22 soft red winter wheat supply was lowered 5 million bushels from September, to 451 million bushels, because of a 5-million-bushel cut in the production estimate to 361 million bushels. Projections for 2021-22 domestic use and exports were unchanged from September at 237 million bushels and 120 million bushels, respectively.
The white wheat carryover for 2022 was projected at 41 million bushels, up 1 million from September and compared with 70 million bushels in 2021. The white wheat supply in 2021-22 was estimated at 276 million bushels, down 13 million from September, as the estimate for the 2021 white wheat crop was lowered 13 million bushels to 201 million.
The USDA forecast the 2022 durum carryover at 20 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from September but down 7 million bushels from 2021. The 2021-22 durum supply was forecast at 115 million bushels, down 2 million from September and down 33 million bushels from 148 million in 2020-21. The domestic use forecast for 2021-22 was 80 million bushels, up 5 million from September but down 13 million from 93 million bushels in 2020-21, and exports were forecast unchanged from September at 15 million bushels, down 13 million bushels from 28 million in 2020-21.