LONDON, ENGLAND – Due primarily to drought conditions in North America, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a 6-million-tonne decline in global total grains production month-on-month to 2.295 billion tonnes. However, that would still be a record, rising by 4% over last year’s total of 2.213 billion tonnes.
In its most recent Grain Market Report, released on July 29, the IGC said the projected record output in the 2021-22 marketing year is due primarily to a sharp increase in maize output (up 74 million tonnes year-on-year) and wheat reaching a new production mark of 788 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the outlook for grains consumption is at a record 2.295 billion tonnes, up 3% year on year and equaling the 2021-22 production forecast. Consumption is projected to drop by 4 million tonnes from last month’s forecast, mainly due to lower than previously predicted feed use, the IGC said.
Global grains ending stocks are forecast to be virtually unchanged from 2020-21 at 594 million tonnes.
Mostly because of increased barley shipments to China, the IGC projection for global trade in 2021-22 is 419 million tonnes, a 2% decline from last year but a 1% increase from the previous month.
The outlook for world soybean production in 2021-22 is trimmed to 382 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the June report but 19 million tonnes higher than in 2020-21.
“Due to larger opening stocks, supplies are raised slightly,” the IGC said. “With total use unchanged month-on-month, aggregate carryovers are lifted to 54 million tonnes, 9% higher year-on-year, including an upgrade for the major exporters.”
The IGC projects global soybean trade slightly lower month-on-month, but still at a record of 172 million tonnes, up 4% from last year.
Rice output is forecast up 6 million tonnes from 2020-21, although 1 million tonnes lower than the June forecast.
Global rice stocks are unchanged at 171 million tonnes and trade in calendar year 2021 is seen little changed at 46.5 million tonnes.
The IGC noted that grain market will continue to be volatile for the foreseeable future.
“With strong increases for wheat and soybean export prices outweighing declines for the other components, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) climbed by 3% month-on-month,” the IGC said.