After reaching a peak of 243,000 tonnes in 2019-20, ending stocks are projected decline to 112,000 tonnes and 87,000 tonnes, respectively, in 2020-21 and 2021-22, the report said.
Taiwan, which relies on imports to meet 96% of its soybean demand, saw imports decline from 2.7 million tonnes in 2019-20 to a projected 2.56 million this year “due to over-importing in 2019-20 as well as logistical challenges for shipping containers from the United States in the fourth quarter of 2020.”
It noted that the US soybean market share in Taiwan is expected to continue to decline from a recent high of over 60%.
“With tighter US ending inventory in 2020-21 and an inverse market where nearby July 2021 future prices are higher than the next crop November 2021 futures prices, Taiwan buyers are expected to buy only as needed,” the USDA said. “It is likely buyers will rely on bulk or parcels from Brazil for the remainder of 2020-21 while buying US containers as a supplement.”
USDA forecasts Taiwan to raise imports to 2.66 million tonnes in 2021-22 “on sustained demand and restocking.”