MEXICO CITY, MEXICO — Mexico’s grain production is expected to increase due to high international commodity prices and government incentive programs, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA estimates Mexico’s wheat production for the 2021-22 marketing year to be 3.25 million tonnes. There was a shift in the production of durum-type wheat to bread wheat in the 2019-20 marketing year to take advantage of the set price per tonne of wheat offered by a government program. But the trend did not hold as a bread wheat oversupply was created causing logistical issues. Despite the guarantee price support program, durum-type wheat returned to normal levels in the 2020-21 marketing year.
Mexico’s total wheat imports for the 2021-22 marketing year are forecast to increase slightly to 4.9 million tonnes due to an economic recovery following the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the USDA said. In the 2020-21 marketing year the Mexican economy was challenged with lowered purchasing power and reduced demand for wheat products.
The USDA anticipates Mexico’s corn production in the 2021-22 marketing year to total 28 million tonnes, essentially unchanged compared with the average over the last five years. Private sources noted that cultivable corn area in Mexico has reached its limit and the only option to increase the corn planted area is to reduce livestock or forest areas, which are unlikely.
Mexican corn imports are expected to be 16.8 million tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year due to strong feed demand. Increase in feed use has created a need to supplement domestic supply with imports and has maintained corn import demand in the last few years. The USDA forecasts exports of the commodity to be 900,000 tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year due to an oversupplied and competitive international market.
Mexican sorghum production is expected to tick up due to a slight expanded planted area and normal weather conditions. The USDA estimates Mexico’s 2021-22 marketing year sorghum production to total 4.7 million tonnes. Based on an expected increase in feed demand Mexican sorghum imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is forecast to total 500,000 tonnes. Exports for the commodity is anticipated to be 20,000 tonnes as China and Mexico signed a phytosanitary protocol for sorghum for animal feed in October 2020.