SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL — Due to dry weather in the south, Conab on Dec. 10 trimmed its grain production forecast for the 2020-21 marketing year in Brazil. However, even with the lower estimate, Conab still anticipates a record output.

Brazil is expected to harvest 265.9 million tonnes of grain, 3.5% more than the 2019-20 season, according to Conab. Compared to last month, there was a reduction of 3.1 million tonnes. The survey also indicated growth of 1.6% over the 2019-20 crop area, totaling 67 million hectares.

For the 2020-21 season, soybeans and corn account for 89% of the country’s total grain production. Conab estimates a 3.3% increase in soybean plantings with production projected to reach 134.5 million tonnes, establishing the country as the world's largest producer of oilseeds.

Conab estimates the country’s total corn production at 102.6 million tonnes. In November, estimates were 134.95 million tonnes of soy and 104.89 million tonnes of corn.

As for rice, planted area grew by 3.2% and production is estimated at 10.9 million tonnes, with 10 million tonnes coming from irrigated areas and 900,000 tonnes from rainfed areas, according to Conab.

The survey noted that wheat is in the final harvest stage (2020 harvest), with an estimated production volume of 6.2 million tonnes.

Conab projects 2020-21 corn exports at 27.7 million tonnes, which represents 20% less than in the same period of the previous crop year.  In November, shipments reached 4.8 million tons, 19% more than in the same period last year.

For soybeans, Conab estimates 83.6 million tonnes will be exported to the foreign market by the end of the marketing year in January. Through November, 82.9 million tonnes already had been exported.  For next year, around 85 million tonnes are expected, which would represent an increase of 1.67%.

For rice, the reversal of the monthly trade balance forecast for the period was confirmed, with November exports closing at 72,700 tonnes against an import total of 188,000 tonnes.