WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture on Nov. 10 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, to 877 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from the October projection and down 151 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.028 billion bushels in 2020. As forecast, the 2021 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 752 million bushels in 2015 and compare with 1.073 billion bushels as the recent five-year average carryover.
With wheat supply in 2020-21 forecast unchanged at 2.979 billion bushels, the reduction to the carryover was tied to a 6-million-bushel increase in domestic usage in 2020-21 to 1.127 billion bushels.
Powering the increase in domestic use was a 5-million-bushel hike in the forecast for food use of wheat in 2020-21 to a record 965 million bushels.
The USDA said in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts, “This increase is based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service Flour Milling Report, which indicated higher food use for the early part of the marketing year than previously estimated.”
The USDA also raised its forecast for 2020-21 seed use of wheat to 62 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from the October projection and up 2 million bushels from 2019-20.
The wheat feed and residual use projection was unchanged from October at 100 million bushels.
The USDA left unchanged from October its forecast for 2020-21 wheat exports at 975 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 2019-20.
Total wheat disappearance in the United States in 2020-21 was projected at 2.102 billion bushels, up 6 million from the October outlook and compared with 2.089 billion bushels in 2019-20.