WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture made few changes to its 2020-21 supply-and-demand projections for corn and soybeans in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued today.
The USDA raised its projection for the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2021, to 3.323 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from the May forecast and up 1.22 billion bushels, or 58%, from 2.103 billion bushels as the projection for the current year.
The USDA forecast corn production in 2020 at 15.995 billion bushels, unchanged from the May projection but up 2.378 billion bushels, or 17%, from 13.617 billion bushels in 2019. It should be noted the USDA lowered its 2019 production estimate by 46 million bushels after assessing a recently concluded resurvey of producers.
The US corn supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 18.123 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from the May projection and up 2.24 billion bushels, or 14%, from 15.883 billion bushels in 2019-20. All the USDA’s demand forecasts for 2020-21 were unchanged from May with feed and residual use at 6.05 billion bushels; food, seed and industrial use at 6.6 billion bushels, including 5.2 billion bushels for use in the manufacture of ethanol, and exports at 2.15 billion bushels.
Important to note, the USDA lowered its forecast for 2019-20 use of corn for ethanol by another 50 million bushels, to 4.9 billion, which equated to a 150-million-bushel reduction in the forecast for 2019-20 corn use for ethanol since May.
The USDA projected the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2021, at 395 million bushels, down 10 million from the May forecast and down 190 million bushels, or 32%, from 585 million bushels as the forecast for the current year.
The USDA left unchanged its forecast for the 2020 soybean crop at 4.125 billion bushels, which would be up 573 million bushels, or 16%, from 3.552 billion bushels in 2019. The soybean supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 4.725 billion bushels, up 5 million from the May projection and compared with 4.476 billion bushels in 2019-20.
The soybean crush in 2020-21 was projected at 2.145 billion bushels, up 15 million from the May outlook and up 5 million bushels from the upwardly revised forecast for 2019-20. The USDA forecast soybean exports in 2020-21 at 2.05 billion bushels, unchanged from May and up 400 million bushels from a downwardly revised forecast of 1.65 billion bushels in 2019-20.