OTTAWA, ONTARIO — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in its monthly Outlook for Principal Field Crops released May 22 forecast the carryover of all wheat in Canada on Aug. 1, 2021, at 6.8 million tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the April outlook but up 900,000 tonnes, or 15%, from 5.9 million tonnes as the projection for 2020. The May carryover and other wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2020-21 included adjustments from April based on information incorporated from Statistics Canada’s report on March 31 grain and oilseed stocks and that agency’s March Seeding Intentions of Principal Field Crops report, both issued on May 7.
AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat production in 2020 at 33.9 million tonnes, unchanged from the April outlook but up 1.552 million tonnes, or 5%, from 32.348 million tonnes in 2019. AAFC forecast area seeded to all wheat in 2020 at 10.349 million hectares, 81,000 hectares smaller than the April projection but 224,000 hectares, or 2%, larger than the 2019 seeded area at 10.125 million hectares. The harvested area for this year was forecast at 9.994 million hectares compared with 10.155 million hectares as the April projection, but the projected average yield for 2020 was raised to 3.39 tonnes per hectare from 3.34 tonnes in April, which resulted in a crop forecast equal to last year’s outturn.
The total all-wheat supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 40 million tonnes, up 60,000 tonnes from April and up 4% from 38.638 million tonnes in 2019-20. Domestic use of all wheat in 2020-21 was forecast at 9.1 million tonnes, down 40,000 tonnes from the April projection and down 738,000 tonnes, or 8%, from 9.838 million tonnes as the forecast for the current year. All-wheat exports in 2020-21 were projected at 24.1 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the April forecast and up 5% from a projected 22.9 million tonnes in 2019-20.
AAFC forecast area planted to wheat excluding durum in Canada for harvest in 2020 at 8.233 million hectares, up 83,000 hectares from the April outlook and up 88,000 hectares, or 1%, from 8.145 million hectares in 2019. AAFC said winter wheat area increased 17% from 2019 and forecast a marginal decrease in spring wheat area. Production of wheat excluding durum was forecast at 28.4 million tonnes, up 400,000 tonnes from the April projection and up 1.029 million tonnes, or 4%, from 27.731 million tonnes in 2019.
“The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 65% to 2.8 million tonnes due to higher seeded area and a return to normal abandonment rate,” AAFC said. “Spring wheat production is expected to fall marginally to 25.6 million tonnes.”
AAFC forecast the carryover of durum on Aug. 1, 2021, at 800,000 tonnes, down 11% from the projection for the current year at 900,000 tonnes. The area seeded to durum was forecast at 2.116 million hectares, down 164,000 hectares from the April projection but up 7% from 1.98 million hectares in 2019. Based on a return to a normal abandonment rate and higher trend yields, AAFC projected durum production in 2020 at 5.5 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from April but up 523,000 tonnes, or 11%, from 4.977 million tonnes in 2019.
Because of the small 2020 carryover, the durum supply in 2020-21 was forecast at 6.5 million tonnes, down 5% from 6.869 million tonnes in 2019-20. Domestic use in 2020-21 was forecast at 800,000 tonnes, down 25% from 1.069 million tonnes in the current year. AAFC forecast 2020-21 durum exports at 4.9 million tonnes, unchanged from the projection for 2019-20.