WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — A bevy of reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan. 10 were expected to be mostly bullish for U.S. grain and oilseed futures but offered mixed signals upon release. A summary of key data from the reports follows.
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings:
U.S. winter wheat planted for harvest in 2020 was estimated at 30.804 million acres, down 1.1% from 2019, down 5% from 2018 and the second lowest on record. Hard red winter wheat seeded area was estimated at 21.8 million acres, down 3%, soft red winter area at 5.64 million acres, up 8%, and white winter wheat area at 3.37 million acres, down 4%.
Stocks of all wheat on Dec. 1, 2019, were estimated at 1.834 billion bushels, down 9% from a year earlier, including 519 million bushels on farms and 1.314 billion bushels in commercial storage. Indicated September-November wheat disappearance was 512 million bushels, up 35% from the same period a year earlier.
Durum stocks were estimated at 64.479 million bushels, down 23% from a year ago.
Corn stocks on Dec. 1, 2019, were estimated at 11.389 billion bushels, down 4.6% from a year ago, including on-farm stocks at 7.178 billion bushels and off-farm stocks at 4.211 billion bushels. Indicated September-November disappearance was 4.52 billion bushels, down 0.4% from the same period a year earlier.
Soybean stocks on Dec. 1, 2019, were estimated at 3.252 billion bushels, down 13% from Dec. 1, 2018, including 1.525 billion bushels on farms and 1.727 billion bushels off farms. Indicated September-November disappearance was 1.22 billion bushels, up 8% from the same period in the prior year.
Crop Production, 2019 Summary:
Corn production in 2019 was estimated at 13.692 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels, or 0.2%, from the prior estimate but down 4.5% from a revised 14.340 billion bushels produced in 2018.
Soybean production in 2019 was estimated at 3.558 billion bushels, up 0.2% from the prior estimate but down 20% from 2018.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates:
Carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2020, was forecast at 965 million bushels, down 9 million bushels, or 0.9%, from the December forecast and down 11% from 1.080 billion bushels in 2019.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was forecast at 1.892 billion bushels, also down 0.9% from December and down 15% from 2.221 billion bushels a year earlier.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2020, was unchanged from December at 475 million bushels but was down 48% from 909 million bushels in 2019.
Wheat futures were modestly higher shortly after the reports were released at noon Eastern Time, corn futures were narrowly mixed and soybean prices were lower.