Estimates for 2010-11 were revised from May with imports reduced 10 million bushels, to 100 million bushels, and exports raised 20 million bushels, to 2.475 billion bushels, resulting in carryover on June 1, 2011, at 809 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 4%, from May and down 274 million bushels, or 28%, from 976 million bushels in 2010. Domestic use numbers were unchanged from May for both 2010-11 and 2011-12.
USDA carryover numbers were above the average of trade expectations of 669 million bushels for 2011-12 but were below the average of 842 million bushels for 2010-11.
For 2011-12, total supply was projected at 2.977 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from May and down 307 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.284 billion bushels last year. All wheat production in 2011 was projected at 2.058 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from May but down 150 million bushels, or 7%, from 2,208 million bushels in 2010.
“The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bushels with higher forecast yields for hard red winter, soft red winter and soft white winter wheat,” the USDA said. “Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.”
Total wheat use in 2011-12 was unchanged from May at 2,290 million bushels, down 185 million bushels, or 7%, from 2,475 million bushels in 2010-11. Current year exports were projected at 1.050 billion bushels, down 245 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.295 billion bushels in 2010-11. Domestic use was projected at 1.24 billion bushels, up 60 million bushels from 2010-11, including food use at 945 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, seed use at 75 million bushels, down 5 million bushels, and feed and residual at 220 million bushels, up 50 million bushels.
“The 2011-12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $7-8.40 per bushel, up 20c on both ends of the range (from May, reflecting both tighter domestic supplies and higher expected corn prices,” the USDA said. The 2010-11 average price was estimated at $5.70 a bushel, up 5¢ from May and up 83¢ from $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10.
Carryover estimates were revised for all 2010-11 wheat-by-class numbers. Hard red winter wheat carryover was projected at 330 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from May; soft red winter at 158 million bushels, down 6 million bushels; hard spring at 204 million bushels, down 16 million bushels; white wheat at 78 million bushels, down 5 million bushels; and durum at 39 million bushels, down 8 million bushels. Initial 2011-12 wheat-by-class projections will be released July 12.
World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 184.26 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from May but down 2.86 million tonnes from 187.12 million tonnes estimated for 2010-11.
U.S. corn carryover on September 1, 2012, was projected at 695 million bushels, down 205 million bushels, or 23%, from 900 million bushels in May and down 35 million bushels, or 5%, from 730 million bushels in 2011. The USDA number for 2012 was below the average trade expectation of 800 million bushels, while the 2011 number was above the average of 715 million bushels.
A decrease in projected use during 2011-12 was more than offset by a decrease in 2011 corn production.
The USDA projected 2011 U.S. corn production at a record high 13,200 million bushels, up 6% from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010 but down 305 million bushels projected in May. Planted area in 2011 was projected at 90.7 million acres, down 1.5 million from May, with harvested area projected at 83.2 million acres, down 1.9 million from May.
“Planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May,” the USDA said. “Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley.”
The USDA projected total U.S. corn supply in 2011-12 at 13,950 million bushels, down 305 million bushels from May and down 230 million bushels from 14.180 billion bushels in 2010-11. Corn imports were unchanged from May at 20 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from a year earlier.
Feed and residual use of corn in 2011-12 was projected at 5 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from May and down 150 million from 2010-11. Projected food, seed and industrial use, which includes corn used to produce ethanol, was unchanged from May at 6.455 million bushels, up 55 million bushels from 2010-11.
Corn exports were projected at 1.8 billion bushels, unchanged from May but down 100 million bushels from 2010-11.
The average price paid to farmers for corn in 2011-12 was projected at a record high $6-$7 a bushel, up 50¢ on both ends of the range from May and compared with $5.20-$5.50 a bushel in 2010-11 and $3.55 a bushel in 2009-10.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 111.89 million tonnes for 2011-12, down 17.25 million bushels, or 13%, from 129.14 million tonnes in May and down 5.55 million tonnes, or 5%, from 117.44 million tonnes in 2010-11.
U.S. soybean carryover on September 1, 2012, was projected at 190 million bushels, up 30 million bushels, or 19%, from 160 million bushels in May and up 10 million bushels from an upwardly revised 180 million bushels in the current year. The USDA carryover numbers were above average trade expectations of 165 million bushels for 2012 and 173 million bushels for 2011.
The USDA projected 2011 U.S. soybean production at 3.285 billion bushels, unchanged from May and down 1% from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010, planted area at 76.6 million acres and harvested area at 75.7 million acres, both unchanged from May but down 1% from 2010-11, and yield at 43.4 bushels an acre, also unchanged from May. Total supply was projected at 3.48 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from May based on larger beginning stocks. Total use was projected at 3.290 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels from May based on projected exports in 2011-12 of 1.520 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels from 1.54 billion bushels in May and in 2010-11. Domestic crush was unchanged from May at 1.655 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The average price of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected to range from $13-$15 a bushel, up $1 on both ends of the range from May and compared with $11.40 this year and $9.59 in 2009-10.
World soybean ending stocks were projected at 61.59 million tonnes for 2011-12, down 260,000 tonnes, or 3%, from May and down 2.94 million tonnes from 64.53 million tonnes in 2010-11.