OTTAWA, CANADA, U.S. — Strong exports and sustained livestock feeding are expected to drive carryover stocks lower in Canada in 2018-19 for most grain and feed commodities, according to an April 29 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA said non-durum wheat and barley are on pace to reach 10-year-low levels in carryover stocks.
“Increased uncertainty in oilseed markets and strong livestock feed demand are expected to push planted area higher for most grains in marketing year 2019-20,” the USDA said.
Non-durum wheat exports through January 2019 were up 8%, barley exports were up 22% and corn exports increased by 52%.
The USDA projects 2018-19 corn ending stocks to fall 17% below 2017-18 on sustained export demand as well as Canadian feed and industrial utilization.
“U.S. corn shipments into Western Canada through the first half of 2018-19, supporting relatively high cattle stocking rates and sustained ethanol production, represent the only economically significant imports of grains into Canada,” the USDA said.
Sagging durum wheat exports through January 2019 point toward higher carryover stocks and lower planted area in 2019-20. Durum exports slumped 18% from 2017-18 levels, largely on reduced demand from Italy.