world wheat map
 

Total grains consumption is forecast at 2.128 billion tonnes, down from 2.131 billion tonnes in early July and compared with 2.109 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

The forecast for total grains carryover stocks was lowered to 532 million tonnes, down from 544 million tonnes a month ago and down from 601 million tonnes in 2017-18.

“Significant downgrades for wheat and barley in the E.U. and the CIS are largely behind an 18-million-tonne (month-on-month) cut in the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2018-19, to a three-year low of 2.059 billion,” the IGC noted in its July 26 report. “Furthermore, with disappointing results being reported from ongoing harvesting, there is the potential for further output cuts in future Grain Market Reports.”

Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 1.052 billion tonnes, unchanged from early July but up from 1.044 billion tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 1.098 billion tonnes, up from 1.096 billion tonnes in early July and compared with 1.079 billion tonnes in 2017-18.

Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 721 million tonnes, down from 737 million tonnes in early July and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption also was forecast lower, at 739 million tonnes compared with 743 million tonnes a month ago. The IGC forecast 2017-18 global wheat consumption at 736 million tonnes.

Soybean production in 2018-19 is forecast at 359 million tonnes, up from 358 million tonnes in early July and up from 338 million tonnes in 2017-18. Consumption is forecast at 356 million tonnes, down from 358 million tonnes a month ago and 344 million a year ago.

Rice production in 2018-19 is forecast at 491 million tonnes, unchanged from early July, and up from 488 million tonnes in 2017-18. Rice consumption also is forecast unchanged, at 493 million tonnes, which compares with 488 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased 3%, led by gains in wheat and barley, the IGC said.

“Background uncertainty about the implications of global trade disputes was again an important market factor, contributing to price weakness at times,” the IGC said. “However, with the focus more recently returning to supply and demand fundamentals, including worsening crop prospects in some key northern hemisphere growers, the index subsequently strengthened.”