U.S. 2016 wheat carryover up 6% from October

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2016 wheat carryover is anticipated to reach the highest level since 2009-10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in its Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Carryover on June 1, 2016, is estimated at 911 million bushels, up 50 million bushels or 6%, from 861 million bushels forecast in October, and up 158 millioon bushels or 21% from 743 million bushels in 2015.

The USDA 2016 wheat carryover number was above the average of trade expectations at 866 million bushels.

The increase in 2016 wheat carryover was the result of a 50-million-bushel decline in projected exports from October to 800 million bushels. Exports would be the lowest since 1971-72 and reflected “continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness,” the USDA said. There were no other changes in the wheat supply and use numbers except for a narrowing of the forecast price range to $4.80-$5.20 a bushel from $4.75-$5.25 in October.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was forecast at 1.76 billion bushels, up 199 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.561 billion bushels projected in October and up 29 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.731 billion bushels in 2015. The USDA 2016 corn carryover was above the pre-report trade average expectation of 1.587 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 465 million bushels, up 40 million bushels, or 9%, from 425 million bushels in October, and up 274 million bushels, or 143%, from 191 million bushels in 2015. The 2016 USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average trade expectation near 429 million bushels.

World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 227.3 million tonnes for 2015-16, down from 228.49 million tonnes projected in October but up from 211.69 million tonnes in 2014-15. Global wheat production was forecast at 733 million tonnes, the third consecutive record, the USDA said.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 211.91 million tonnes for 2015-16, up from 187.83 million tonnes in October and up from 208.21 million tonnes forecast for 2014-15.

Global 2015-16 soybean ending stocks were projected at 82.86 million tonnes, down from 85.14 million tonnes in October but up from 77.58 million tonnes in 2014-15.

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