U.S. corn crop seen down 4% from 2014

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2015 corn production was forecast at 13.686 billion bushels, down 4% from 14.216 billion bushels in 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Aug. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 3.916 billion bushels, down 1% from 3.969 billion bushels last year. All-wheat production was forecast at 2.136 billion bushels, down less than 1% from 2.148 billion bushels in July but up 5% from 2.026 million bushels in 2014.

The USDA corn number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 13.318 billion bushels. The soybean number also was above the pre-report average of about 3.719 billion bushels. The all-wheat number was below the average analyst estimate of 2.161 billion bushels.

Corn, wheat and soy complex futures traded sharply lower after the USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports on higher-than-expected yield and production forecasts for corn and soybeans and lower export forecasts from July for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 168.8 bushels an acre, down 2.2 bushels from 171 bushels an acre in 2014, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 81,101,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 2% from 83,136,000 acres in 2014. If realized, corn production would be the third largest on record and yield would be the second highest on record.

Soybean yield was forecast at 46.9 bushels an acre, down 0.9 bushels from 47.8 bushels an acre in 2014. Harvested area was forecast at a record 83,549,000 acres, down 1% from June but up about 1% from 83,061,000 acres in 2014.

All-wheat average yield was forecast at 44.1 bushels an acre, down 0.2 bushel from 44.3 bushels in July but up 0.4 bushel from 43.7 bushels an acre in 2014. Harvested area was estimated at 48,454,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 4% from 46,381,000 acres in 2014.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 620,981,000 bushels, up less than 1% from 616,831,000 bushels forecast in July and up 4% from 595,038,000 bushels a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 47 bushels an acre, up 0.3 bushel from 46.7 bushels in July 2014. Harvested area was forecast at 13,217,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 4% from 12,740,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 575,977,000 bushels, up slightly from July and up 4% from 555,543,000 bushels in 2014.

Durum outturn was forecast at 76,780,000 bushels, up 2% from 75,540,000 bushels in July and up 45% from 53,087,000 bushels in 2014. Durum yield was forecast at 40.2 bushels an acre, up 0.6 bushel from 39.6 bushels in July and up 0.5 bushels from 39.7 bushels an acre in 2014, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 1,908,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 43% from 1,337,000 acres a year ago.

The USDA estimated winter wheat production at 1,438,278,000 bushels, down 1% from 1,455,516,000 in July but up 4% from 1,377,526,000 bushels in 2014. Winter wheat yield was estimated at 43.2 bushels an acre, down 0.5 bushel from 43.7 bushels in July but up 0.6 bushel from 42.6 bushels an acre last year. Harvested area was estimated at 33,329,000 acres, unchanged from July but up 3% from 32,304,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 856,000,000 bushels, down 1% from July but up 16% from 737,937,000 bushels in 2014.

Soft red winter production was estimated at 388,910,000 bushels, down 1% from July and down 15% from 455,297,000 bushels in 2014.

Soft white winter wheat outturn was estimated at 180,877,000 bushels, up 5% from 172,802,000 bushels in 2014. Hard white outturn was estimated at 12,491,000 bushels, up 9% from 11,490,000 bushels last year.

The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. rice production at 205,030,000 cwts, down 7% from 221,035,000 cwts in 2014. Sorghum production was forecast at 572,658,000 bushels, up 32% from 432,575,000 bushels in 2014. The peanut crop was forecast at 6,181 million lbs, up 19% from 5,210 million lbs in 2014. Cotton production was forecast at 13,082,000 bales, down 20% from last year, with cottonseed at 4,198,000 tons, down 18%. Oats output in 2015 was forecast at 85,456,000 bushels, up 2% from July and up 23% from 69,684,000 bushels in 2014. Barley production was forecast at 209,690,000 bushels, up 1% from July and up 19% from 176,794,000 bushels last year.

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