U.S. 2016 wheat carryover up 3% from May

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on June 10 forecast the carryover of wheat in the U.S. on June 1, 2016, at 814 million bushels, up 21 million bushels, or 3%, from 793 million bushels as projected in May and up 102 million bushels, or 14%, from 712 million bushels estimated for 2015. The USDA’s 2016 carryover number was above the average of pre-report trade expectations at 791 million bushels. The 2015 carryover estimate was below the average trade guess at 715 million bushels.

The USDA forecast the 2015-16 wheat supply at 2.973 billion bushels, up 36 million bushels from the May projection and up 209 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.764 billion bushels in 2014-15. The USDA projected 2015 wheat production at 2.121 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels from the May forecast and up 5% from 2.026 billion bushels in 2014. The production forecast was based on a harvested area projected at 48 million acres, up 3% from 46.4 million in 2014, and an average yield at 44.2 bushels an acre, up 0.7 million bushels per acre from the May outlook and compared with 43.7 bushels per acre last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2015-16 were projected at 140 million bushels, unchanged from the May forecast and down 8 million bushels from 2014-15.

Domestic use of wheat in 2015-16 was projected at 1.234 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from the May outlook and up 22 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.197 billion bushels in 2014-15 based on higher exports, food use and feed and residual use projections.

Food use of wheat in 2015-16 was projected at a record 967 million bushels, unchanged from May and up 1% from 960 million bushels in 2014-15. Seed use of wheat was forecast at 72 million bushels, unchanged from May and down 6% from 77 million bushels in 2014-15. Feed and residual use in 2015-16 was projected at 195 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from May and up 35 million bushels, or 22%, from 160 million bushels in 2014-15.

Wheat exporters in 2015-16 were projected at 925 million bushels, unchanged from May and up 70 million bushels, or 8%, from 855 million bushels in the previous year. The 2014-15 outgo was the smallest since 849 million bushels were exported in 2002-03.

Total wheat disappearance in 2015-16 was forecast at 2.159 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from the May projection and up 107 million bushels, or 5%, from 2,052 million bushels in 2014-15.

The average farm price of wheat in 2015-16 was forecast at $4.40-$5.40 a bushel, down 10¢ from the May projected range and compared with $6 a bushel in 2014-15 and $6.87 a bushel in 2013-14.

Initial 2015-16 supply-and-demand forecasts by wheat class will be issued in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1.771 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from the May forecast but down 105 million bushels, or 6%, from an upwardly revised forecast of 1.876 billion bushels in 2015. The USDA 2016 corn carryover was above the average of pre-report trade forecasts at 1.758 billion bushels. The 2014-15 corn carryover forecast was above the average of trade expectations of 1.858 billion bushels.

The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 475 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from the May outlook but up 145 million bushels, or 44%, from a downwardly revised forecast for 2015 at 330 million bushels. The USDA’s 2016 soybean carryover number was below the average of pre-report trade expectations near 485 million bushels. The 2015 carryover forecast was below the trade average projection at 342 million bushels.

The U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2016, was projected at 48.4 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from the May forecast and up 3 million cwts, or 2%, from 45.4 million cwts as the forecast for 2015.

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