U.S. wheat carryover down from March

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on April 9 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2015, at 684 million bushels, down 7 million bushels, or 1%, from the March projection but up 94 million bushels, or 16%, from 590 million bushels in 2014. The adjustment was the result of lower exports more than offset by lower imports and higher seed, feed and residual use in 2014-15.

The USDA carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 690 million bushels.

Imports in 2014-15 were forecast at 145 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the March forecast and down 24 million bushels from 2013-14. Imports of durum were lowered 10 million bushels and of hard red spring wheat 5 million bushels, the USDA indicated. As a result, total wheat supply in 2014-15 was lowered 15 million bushels to 2.761 billion bushels. Beginning stocks at 590 million bushels and 2014 production at 2.026 billion bushels were unchanged from March.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was forecast at 2.077 billion bushels, down 8 million bushels from March and down 354 million bushels, or 15%, from 2.431 billion bushels in 2013-14. Domestic use was raised 12 million bushels to 1.197 billion bushels as the result of a 2-million-bushel increase in seed use, at 77 million bushels, and a 10-million-bushel increase in feed and residual, at 160 million bushels. Food use of wheat was unchanged from March at 960 million bushels.

The feed and residual use was raised on higher disappearance during the December-February and September-November periods indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report, the USDA said.

Wheat exports in 2014-15 were forecast at 880 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 2%, from March and down 296 million bushels, or 25%, from 1.176 billion bushels in the prior year.

“The all wheat export projection is lowered 20 million bushels on continued strong competition in global markets,” the USDA said. “This would be the lowest export total since 2009-10.”

The average price for wheat paid to farmers in 2014-15 was forecast at $6 to $6.10 a bushel, compared with $5.90 to $6.10 forecast in March and $6.87 in 2013-14.

The USDA forecast 2014-15 carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2015, at 1.827 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from the March projection and up 595 million bushels, or 48%, from 1.232 billion bushels in 2013-14.

The only change in the USDA’s corn numbers was a 50-million-bushel reduction from March in forecast feed and residual use, at 5.25 billion bushels, which still was up 214 million bushels, or 4%, from 5.036 billion bushels in 2013-14.

The change in feed and residual reflected lower December-February corn disappearance indicated in the Grain Stocks report, the USDA said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was forecast at 370 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from the March forecast but up 278 million bushels, or about 300%, from 92 million bushels in 2013-14.

The change reflected a 5-million-bushel increase from March in forecast 2014-15 imports, at 30 million bushels, more than offset by a 6-million-bushel increase in seed use, at 98 million bushels, and a 14-million-bushel increase in residual, at 38 million bushels. Domestic crushings were unchanged from March at 1.795 billion bushels, as were exports, at 1.79 billion bushels.

The USDA corn and soybean carryover numbers compared with the average trade estimate of 1.851 billion bushels for corn and 371 million bushels for soybeans.

 

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