U.S. expects record crop, but falls short of estimates

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S.  — If forecasts are realized, the U.S. is expected to have record high corn and soybean production and average yields, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Oct. 10 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Yet numbers were below pre-report trade estimates.

U.S. 2014 corn production was forecast at 14.475 billion bushels, up 80 million bushels from 14.395 billion bushels forecast in September and up 4% from 13.925 billion bushels in 2013. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 174.2 bushels an acre, up 2.5 bushels from September and up 15.4 bushels from 158.8 bushels an acre in 2013, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 83,097,000 acres, down 1% from September and down 5% from 2013.

Soybean production was forecast at 3.927 billion bushels, up 14 million bushels from 3.913 billion bushels forecast in September and up 17% from an upwardly revised 3.358 billion bushels last year. Soybean yield was forecast at 47.1 bushels an acre, up 0.5 bushel from September and up 3.1 bushels from an upwardly revised 44 bushels an acre in 2013. Harvested area was forecast at 83,403,000 acres, down less than 1% from September but up 9% from 2013.

The USDA corn production and yield numbers were below the average pre-report trade estimate of 14.523 billion bushels and 174.7 bushels an acre, respectively. The soybean numbers also were below the pre-report trade averages of 3.977 billion bushels for production and 47.6 bushels per acre.

The USDA in its Oct. 10 WASDE report projected carryover of wheat in the U.S. on June 1, 2015, at 654 million bushels, down 44 million bushels, or 6%, from 698 million bushels projected in September, but up 64 million bushels, or 11%, from 590 million bushels on June 1, 2014

USDA 2015 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 704 million bushels.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 192 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from September and down 44 million bushels from 236 million bushels in 2014. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 162 million bushels, down 29 million bushels from September but up 49 million bushels from 113 million bushels this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 247 million bushels, up 17 million bushels from September and up 78 million bushels from 169 million bushels in 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 16 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from September and down 6 million bushels from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 37 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from September and down 13 million bushels from 2014.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 2.081 billion bushels, up 79 million bushels, or 4%, from September and up 845 million bushels, or 68%, from an upwardly revised 1,236 million bushels on Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast of 2.144 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 450 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 5%, from 475 million bushels projected in September but up 358 million bushels from a downwardly revised 92 million bushels on Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast near 478 million bushels.

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