U.S. 2014-15 wheat carryover up slightly from July

by World Grain staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected carryover of wheat in the U.S. on June 1, 2015, at 663 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from 660 million bushels projected in July, and up 73 million bushels, or 12%, from 590 million bushels on June 1.

USDA 2015 wheat carryover number was the same as the average trade expectation of 663 million bushels. Total wheat production in 2014 was estimated at 2.03 billion bushels, compared with 1.992 billion bushels forecast in July and 2.13 billion bushels in 2013. Wheat imports were projected at 160 million bushels, unchanged from July and down 9 million bushels from 169 million bushels last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.779 billion bushels, up 38 million bushels from July but down 237 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.016 billion bushels last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2.116 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels from July and compared with 2.426 billion bushels in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 155 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from July and down 68 million bushels from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 925 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from 900 million bushels in July but down 251 million bushels from 1.176 billion bushels in 2013-14.

Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 186 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from July but down from 235 million bushels in 2014. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 196 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from July but up from 114 million bushels this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 210 million bushels, up 19 million bushels from July and up from 169 million bushels from 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 24 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from July but up 2 million bushels from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 47 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from July and down 3 million bushels from this year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1.808 billion bushels, up 7 million bushels from July and up 627 million bushels, or 53%, from 1.181 billion bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast of 2.003 billion bushels, and the 2014 number was below the trade average of 1.239 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 430 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 4%, from 415 million bushels projected in July and up 275 million bushels, or 207%, from 140 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 409 million bushels, and the 2014 number was above the average expectation of 137 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 192.96 million tonnes, compared with 189.54 million tonnes projected in July and 183.66 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at a record 716.09 million tonnes, compared with 705.17 million tonnes in July and 714.07 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 706.79 million tonnes, compared with 699.92 million tonnes in July and 706.05 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 151.80 million tonnes, compared with 151.61 million tonnes in July and 165.27 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 187.82 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 188.05 million tonnes projected in July and 171.09 million tonnes in 2013-14.

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 85.62 million tonnes compared with 85.31 million tonnes in July and 67.09 million tonnes in 2013-14.

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