U.S. 2014-15 wheat carryover up 86 million bushels

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected carryover of wheat in the U.S. on June 1, 2015, at 660 million bushels, up 86 million bushels, or 15%, from 574 million bushels projected in June,  and up 70 million bushels, or 12%, from 590 million bushels on June 1, 2014.

USDA 2015 wheat carryover number was well above the average trade expectation of 585 million bushels.
Total wheat production in 2014 was estimated at 1.992 billion bushels, compared with 1.942 billion bushels forecast in June and 2.13 billion bushels in 2013. Wheat imports were projected at 160 million bushels, unchanged from June and down 8 million bushels from 168 million bushels last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.741 billion bushels, up 46 million bushels from June but down 275 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.016 billion bushels last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2.081 billion bushels, down 40 million bushels from June and compared with 2.426 billion bushels in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from June and down 72 million bushels from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 900 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from 925 million bushels in June and down 282 million bushels from 1.182 billion bushels in 2013-14.

It was the first 2014-15 breakdown by class for wheat. Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2015, was projected at 185 million bushels, down from 235 million bushels in 2014, and soft red winter carryover was projected at 198 million bushels, up from 114 million bushels this year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 191 million bushels, up 22 million bushels from 2014. Durum carryover was forecast at 33 million bushels, up 11 million bushels from 2014. White wheat carryover was projected at 53 million bushels, up three million bushels from this year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1.801 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels from June and up 555 million bushels, or 45%, from 1.246 billion bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast of 1.773 billion bushels, and the 2014 number was above the trade average of 1.225 billion bushels. 

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 415 million bushels, up 90 million bushels, or 28%, from 325 million bushels projected in June and up 275 million bushels, or 196%, from 140 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The USDA 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 408 million bushels and the 2014 number was above the average expectation of 130 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 189.54 million tonnes, compared with 188.61 million tonnes projected in June and 184.29 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at 705.17 million tonnes, compared with 701.62 million tonnes in June and 714.20 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 699.62 million tonnes, compared with 699.06 million tonnes in June and 705.52 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 151.61 million tonnes, compared with 152.08 million tonnes in June and 164.31 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 188.05 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 182.65 million tonnes projected in June and 173.42 million tonnes in 2013-14. 

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 85.31 million tonnes compared with 82.88 million tonnes in June and 67.24 million tonnes in 2013-14. 

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