IGC boosts global grain forecasts from May

by World Grain Staff
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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, U.S. — The International Grains Council (IGC) in its monthly outlook raised from May its global forecasts for 2014-15 wheat, corn and rice production. Its first global 2014-15 soybean production forecast came in above 2013-14.

Global 2014-15 wheat production was forecast at 699 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from its prior forecast but 11 million tonnes below record outturn of 710 million tonnes in 2013-14. Wheat consumption was forecast at 697 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the prior forecast but up 7 million tonnes from a year earlier. Carryover in 2015 was forecast at 194 million tonnes, up 7 million tonnes from May and up 2 million tonnes from 2014.

“With average yields projected to retreat from last year’s record, 2014-15 wheat production is forecast to fall by 2% year-over-year,” the IGC said. “Supply and demand are expected to be virtually balanced, with stocks seen rising only slightly. Despite an upward revision this month, exporter stocks are forecast tighter than average. A mostly comfortable supply outlook and some concerns about a slowdown in demand pressured world export prices during June,” the IGC said.

World corn production was forecast at 963 million tonnes in 2014-15, up 8 million tonnes from the prior forecast but down 9 million tonnes from 2013-14. Corn consumption was forecast at 950 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the May forecast and up 12 million tonnes from the prior year. Carryover stocks were forecast at 180 million tonnes in 2015, up 8 million tonnes from May and up 13 million tonnes from 2014.

The increase in 2014-15 corn outturn mainly reflected improved prospects in China. World prices were under pressure during June, the IGC said.

“Despite expanding demand, world ending stocks are forecast to increase for a fourth consecutive year,” the IGC said. “Inventories in China are growing and may account for almost half of the world total.”

Global rice production was forecast at 476 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from May and up 4 million tonnes from 2013-14. Consumption was forecast equal to production for 2014-15, but was up 7 million tonnes from 469 million tonnes in 2013-14. Carryover stocks were forecast at 109 million tonnes in 2014-15, down 1 million tonnes from both May and the prior year.

In its initial 2014-15 global soybean forecasts, the IGC projected production at 300 million tonnes, up 17 million tonnes, or 6%, from 2013-14, consumption at 293 million tonnes, up 11 million tonnes, and carryover at 35 million tonnes, up 7 million tonnes.

“While projections for 2014-15 remain tentative, potentially large outturns in the three major soybean exporters could boost end-season stocks by 24% year-over-year,” the IGC said. “World prices were mostly weighed by an increasingly bearish fundamental outlook, including very good early U.S. crop prospects, slower export demand and South American harvest pressure.”

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