U.S. wheat carryover up 4% from March
April 10, 2014
by World Grain Staff
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 583 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 4%, from the March projection of 558 million bushels but down 135 million bushels, or 19%, from 718 million bushels in 2013. The forecast was slightly above the average of pre-report trade estimates of about 581 million bushels.
“U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 25 million bushels higher with lower imports more than offset by a reduction in feed and residual use,” the USDA said. “Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels lower based on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by the March 1 stocks and revisions to the December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.”
The carryover of hard red winter wheat on June 1, 2014, was forecast at 193 million bushels, up 12 million bushels from the March projection but down 150 million bushels, or 44%, from 343 million bushels in 2013. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 125 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from March but up 1 million bushels from 2013. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 189 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from March and up 24 million bushels from 165 million bushels in 2013. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 54 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from the previous projection but down 9 million bushels from 2013. The durum carryover was forecast at 22 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from March and down 1 million bushels from 2013.
The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.75-$6.95 a bushel, unchanged from March, and down from $7.77 a bushel estimated in 2012-13.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,331 million bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 9%, from the March forecast but up 510 million bushels, or 62%, from 821 million bushels in 2013. The change was based on a 125-million-bushel increase from March in projected corn exports at 1.75 billion bushels, which was up 139% from 731 million bushels in 2012-13.
“Continued strong export sales and a rising weekly shipment pace for U.S. corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand,” the USDA said.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 135 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from the March projection and down 6 million bushels from 2013. Soybean imports in 2013-14 were projected at 65 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from March, exports at a record 1.58 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, domestic crush at 1.685 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels, seed use at 95 million bushels, up 8 million bushels, and residual at zero, down 12 million bushels.
The USDA corn carryover was below the average trade expectation of 1,403 million bushels, and the USDA soybean number also was below the trade average of about 139 million bushels.
The USDA projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 186.68 million tonnes, up 2% from the March projection of 183.81 million tonnes and up 10.08 million tonnes from 176.6 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.
“Global wheat consumption for 2013-14 is lowered 2.4 million tonnes mostly on a 2-million-tonne reduction in China wheat feeding,” the USDA said. “A number of smaller and mostly offsetting changes are also made in consumption for other countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 2.9 million tons higher with the largest increases for Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, Australia and China.”
World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 158 million tonnes, down slightly from 158.47 million tonnes in March but up 23.6 million tonnes, or 18%, from 134.4 million tonnes in 2012-13.
World soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were projected at 69.42 million tonnes, down 1.22 million tonnes from March but up 11.55 million tonnes, or 20%, from 57.87 million tonnes in 2012-13.