USDA lowers corn, soybean carryover forecasts

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Dec. 10 lowered its 2014 carryover forecasts for corn and soybeans. In each case, the revised carryover forecast fell below the average of pre-report trade projections. But given the bearish supply-and-demand report on wheat, corn and soybean futures prices failed to rally in midday trading. 

The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2014, at 1.792 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from the November projection but more than double the 2013 carryover at 824 million bushels. The average of pre-report trade projections was around 1.86 billion bushels.

The USDA raised its supply forecast for 2013-14 by 5 million bushels, to 14,842,000 bushels, because of a 5-million-bushel increase in forecast imports to 30 million bushels. The 2013 corn production estimate was unchanged at 13.989 billion bushels. 

Domestic disappearance of corn in 2013-14 was forecast at 11.6 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from the November projection and up 1.223 billion bushels, or 12%, from 10.377 billion bushels in 2012-13. The increase in domestic use was tied to a 50-million-bushel increase in forecast corn use in the manufacture of ethanol to 4.95 billion bushels. The December forecast was up 302 million bushels, or 6%, from 4.648 billion bushels in 2012-13. Feed and residual use of corn in 2013-14 was forecast at 5.2 billion bushels, unchanged from November and up 867 million bushels, or 20%, from 4.333 billion bushels in 2012-13.

Corn exports were forecast at 1.45 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from the November outlook and nearly double the 2012-13 outgo of 731 million bushels.

Total corn use in 2013-14 was forecast at 13.05 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from the November projection and up 1,942,000 bushels, or 17%, from 11.108 billion bushels in 2012-13.

The season average farm price of wheat was forecast at $4.05-$4.75 a bushel compared with $4.10-$4.90 as the November range and $6.89 in 2012-13 and $6.22 in 2011-12.

The USDA forecast the soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, at 150 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from the November projection but up 11 million bushels from 141 million bushels as the 2013 carryover. Pre-report trade projections for the carryover averaged about 154 million bushels.

The USDA forecast the 2013-14 soybean supply at 3.423 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from the November projection because of a 10-million-bushel increase in forecast imports to 25 million bushels. The 2013 crop estimate was unchanged at 3.258 billion bushels.

The 2013-14 soybean crush was forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from the November outlook and compared with 1.689 billion bushels in 2012-13. The USDA commented, “Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.69 billion bushels as strong foreign demand for soybean meal, led by the European Union and Southeast Asia, more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use.” 

Soybean exports were forecast at 1.475 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from the November projection and up 155 million bushels, or 12%, from 1.32 billion bushels in 2012-13.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected at $11.50-$13.50 a bushel compared with $11.15-$13.15 as the November projected range and $14.40 in 2012-13 and $12.50 in 2011-12.


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