USDA increases 2014 U.S. wheat carryover

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Nov. 8 forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 565 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from the September projection but down 153 million bushels, or 21%, from 718 million bushels in 2013. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 527 million bushels. 

The USDA estimated U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2.13 billion bushels, which was 16 million bushels higher than the projection in the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports and 2 million bushels higher than indicated in the USDA’s Sept. 30 Small Grains 2013 Summary. The USDA noted its spring wheat estimate was raised 2 million bushels from the Small Grains Summary and its durum production estimate was raised slightly after a resurvey of North Dakota and Montana producers, who weren’t finished harvesting when the survey for the Small Grains Summary was completed.

The U.S. wheat supply in 2013-14 was forecast at 2.998 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from the September projection but down 4% from 3,131,000 bushels in 2012-13. The higher supply forecast reflected the 16-million-bu hike in the production estimate and a higher forecast for wheat imports. The USDA forecast 2013-14 wheat imports at a record 150 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from September and up 27 million bushels from 2012-13.

U.S. wheat disappearance in 2013-14 was forecast at 2.433 billion bushels, up 22 million bushels from the September projection and up 19 million bushels from 2012-13. Domestic use of wheat was forecast at 1.333 billion bushels, up 22 million bushels from the September projection but down 73 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.406 billion bushels in 2012-13.

Food use of wheat was forecast at 950 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from the September projection but up 5 million bushels from 2012-13. The USDA said the lower food use forecast reflected the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers Association “with hard red winter wheat food use reduced.”

Seed use of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 73 million bushels, unchanged from September and from 2012-13.

The USDA forecast feed and residual use of wheat in 2013-14 at 310 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from the September projection but down 78 million bushels, or 20%, from 388 million bushels in 2012-13. The USDA said the upward adjustment in the feed and residual use forecast was based on indicated June-August wheat disappearance as reported in the Sept. 1, 2013, Grain Stocks report.

U.S. wheat exports in 2013-14 were forecast at 1.1 billion bushels, unchanged from the September projection but up 93 million bushels from 1.007 billion bushels in 2012-13. 

The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.70-$7.30 a bushel, which compared with a range of $6.50-$7.50 projected in September and with $7.77 a bushel in 2012-13 and $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1.887 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels from the September forecast and up 1.063 billion bushels, or 129%, from 824 million bushels in 2012-13.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 170 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from the September projection and up 29 million bushels from 141 million bushels in 2013.


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