USDA raises U.S. wheat carryover

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Sept. 12 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 561 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the August projection but down 157 million bushels, or 22%, from 718 million bushels in 2013. If the carryover forecast is realized, the June 1, 2014, wheat inventory would be the smallest since 306 million bushels in 2008, which, in turn, was the smallest since 1948. It would compare with 791 million bushels as the recent-five year average ending stocks and would be similar to the June 1 inventory in 2006 at 571 million bushels. 

The increase in the carryover forecast from the August outlook was the result of a 10-million-bu hike in forecast imports in 2013-14 to 140 million bushels as all other all-wheat supply-and-demand forecasts were unchanged. 

The USDA’s all-wheat production forecast at 2.114 billion bushels was unchanged from August and was down 155 million bushels, or 7%, from 2.269 billion bushels in 2012. The USDA as a rule doesn’t update its wheat production forecast in either its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates or its September Crop Production report. The next official wheat production estimate will be released at the end of September in the department’s Small Grains Summary 2013. The 2013-14 wheat supply was forecast at 2.972 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from the August projection because of the 10-million-bushel hike in the import forecast. 

Domestic wheat usage forecasts for 2013-14 were unchanged from August with food use at a record 958 million bushels, up 13 million bushels from 2012-13, seed use at 73 million bushels, unchanged from the previous year, and feed and residual use at 280 million bushels, down 110 million bushels, or 28%, from 390 million bushels in 2012-13. 

The USDA’s export forecast for 2013-14 also was unchanged from August at 1.1 billion bushels, which was up 93 million bushels, or 9%, from the 2012-13 outgo of 1.007 billion bushels. 

The average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at $6.50@7.50 a bushel compared with the August projected range of $6.40-$7.60 a bushel and with $7.77 a bushel in 2012-13 and $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12. 

The USDA made several adjustments to its supply-and-demand forecasts by class. The hard red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 197 million bushels, unchanged from the August outlook as a 10-million-bushel reduction in forecast domestic use, to 532 million bushels, was offset by an increase in forecast exports to 415 million bushels. The 2013 hard red winter wheat carryover was 343 million bushels. The 2014 hard red winter wheat carryover was forecast to be the smallest since 138 million bushels in 2008 and would compare with 337 million bushels as the recent five-year average carryover. 

The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 180 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the August projection and up 15 million bushels from 165 million bushels in 2013. The increase was tied to a forecast 10-million-bushel hike in forecast spring wheat imports from Canada to 52 million bushels. On the use side of the balance sheet, forecast spring wheat domestic use in 2013-14 was raised 10 million bushels, to 287 million bushels.

This was offset by a 10-million-bushel decrease in the export forecast to 225 million bushels. 

The USDA forecast the 2014 soft red winter wheat carryover at 106 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the August projection and down 18 million bushels from 2013. The decrease from August was because of a lower forecast for soft red winter wheat imports. The USDA forecast imports at 20 million bushels. 

The white wheat supply-and-demand forecasts were unchanged from August. The carryover was forecast at 51 million bushels, down 12 million bushels from 2013. 

The 2014 durum carryover was forecast at 28 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from the August projection and equal to the 2013 carryover. The higher carryover forecast was linked to a higher forecast for imports from Canada to 51 million bushels.


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