U.S. wheat carryover, winter crop top expectations

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2013 winter wheat production was forecast at 1.509 billion bushels, up 23 million bushels, or about 2%, from 1.486 billion bushels forecast in May but down 136 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.645 billion bushels in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its June 12 Crop Production report. 

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2014, was projected at 659 million bushels, down 11 million bushels, or 2%, from 670 million bushels as the May projection and down 87 million bushels, or 12%, from 746 million bushels on June 1, 2013, the USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, also released June 12. 

The USDA winter wheat production number was above analysts’ pre-report trade expectations that averaged near 1.457 billion bushels. The 2013-14 carryover projection also was above the average trade estimate of 634 million bushels. 

Winter wheat futures traded lower after the reports were released. 

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 781 million bushels, up 2% from 768 million bushels forecast in May, soft red winter at 509 million bushels, up 2% from 501 million bushels in May, and white winter at 219 million bushels, up 1% from 217 million bushels in May. 

The USDA numbers were above pre-report trade expectations averaging near 743 million bushels for hard red winter wheat, 506 million bushels for soft red winter and 208 million bushels for white winter. 

In its WASDE report, the USDA projected total U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2.08 billion bushels, up from 2.057 billion bushels as the May projection and down 189 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, based on a combination of survey-based winter wheat data and trend data for spring wheat.


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