U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 4% from February

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 716 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or about 4%, from 691 million bushels as the February projection due to a projected 25-million-bushel decrease in 2012-13 exports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Continuing strong competition, particularly from E.U.-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments,” the USDA said. “Projected exports for hard red winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels.” The USDA also lowered projected white wheat exports by 10 million bushels and hard red spring by 5 million bushels, but raised soft red winter exports by 15 million bushels.

The USDA 2013 wheat carryover was slightly above the average expected by the trade that was near 713 million bushels. Wheat futures prices traded mostly lower in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis immediately after the report.

Except for the decrease in exports, other projected supply and use numbers were unchanged for 2012-13. The average price of wheat was projected at $7.65-$7.95 a bushel, down from $7.70-$8.10 projected in February but still above $7.24 in 2011-12.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, unchanged from February and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.9 billion bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from February at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels, unchanged from February but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Feed and residual use was projected at 375 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 211 million bushels, or 129%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 1 million bushels from 2011-12. 

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12.

Total domestic use was projected at 1.4 billion bushels, unchanged from February and up 218 million bushels, or 18%, from 1.18 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.025 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 2%, from both February and 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.425 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels from 2.45 billion bushels in February but up 194 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.

The USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 332 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from February and up 15 million bushels from 317 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 400 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from February, with total supply, including imports, up 3 million bushels at 1.339 billion bushels.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 118 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from February and down 67 million bushels from 185 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 200 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from last year.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 180 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from February and up 29 million bushels from 151 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 225 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from February.

White wheat carryover was projected at 51 million bushels, up 9 million bushels from February but down 13 million bushels from 2012. Exports were projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from February, and total supply was reduced 1 million bushels to 331 million bushels.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 35 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from February but up 10 million bushels from 25 million bushels in 2012. Exports were unchanged from February but total supply was reduced 2 million bushels to 148 million bushels for 2012-13.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 632 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 357 million bushels, or 36%, from 989 million bushels in 2012, the USDA said.

The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 649 million bushels. 

U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 125 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from February and up 96 million bushels from 29 million bushels in 2011-12. U.S. corn production in 2012 was unchanged from February at 10,780 million bushels, but down 13% from 12.36 billion bushels in 2011. Total supply was projected at 11.894 billion bushels, also up 25 million bushels from February but down 1.622 billion bushels, or 12%, from 13.516 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.55 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from February and up 2 million bushels from 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5.887 billion bushels, unchanged from February (including corn for ethanol unchanged at 4.5 billion bushels and food and seed use at 1.387 billion bushels), but down 550 million bushels, or 9%, from 6.437 billion bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5.01 billion bushels for ethanol and 1.426 billion bushels for food and seed).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 825 million bushels, down 75 million bushels, or 8%, from 900 million bushels in February and down 718 million bushels, or 47%, from 1.543 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11.262 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from 11.237 billion bushels as the February forecast but down 1.265 billion bushels, or 10%, from 12.527 billion bushels in 2011-12.

“Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat,” the USDA said. “Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production.”

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.75-$7.45 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with $6.75-$7.65 projected in February and $6.22 in 2011-12.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 44 million bushels, or 26%, from 169 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was slightly above the average trade expectation that was near 122 million bushels. 
 
All projections for 2012-13 U.S. soybean supply and use were unchanged from the USDA’s February WASDE. The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.80-$14.80 a bushel, compared with $13.55-$15.05 projected in February and above the $12.50 average in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 79 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.094 billion bushels in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from February at 20 million bushels, but up 4 million bushels from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3.204 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 121 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.325 billion bushels in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1.615 billion bushels, unchanged from February but still down 88 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.703 billion bushels in 2011-12. 

Exports were projected at 1.345 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 17 million bushels from 1.362 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total soybean use was projected at 3.08 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 75 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.155 billion bushels in 2011-12. 


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