U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 5% from December

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013 was projected at 716 million bushels, down 38 million bushels, or 5%, from 754 million bushels as the December projection due mainly to a projected 35-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The USDA 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 743 million bushels.
U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, unchanged from December and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.999 billion bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from December at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels for 2012-13, unchanged from December but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from December but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12. Feed and residual use was projected at 350 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from December and up 186 million bushels, or 113%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from December but down 1 million bushels from 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1.375 billion bushels, up 37 million bushels from December and up 193 million bushels, or 16%, from 1.182 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.05 billion bushels, unchanged from December and also equal to the estimated 2011-12 outgo.
Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.425 billion bushels, up 37 million bushels from December and up 194 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.
The average price of wheat was projected to range from $7.65-$8.15 a bushel in 2012-13, down from $7.70-$8.30 projected as the average in December.
USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 289 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from December but down 28 million bushels from 317 million bushels in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 168 million bushels, down 47 million bushels from December and down 17 million bushels from 185 million bushels in 2012.
Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 170 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from December but up 19 million bushels from 151 million bushels in 2012. White wheat carryover was projected at 52 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from December but down 12 million bushels from 2012.
Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 37 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from December but up 12 million bushels from 25 million bushels in 2012.
Corn production in 2012 was estimated at 10.78 billion bushels, up 55 million bushels from 10.725 billion bushels forecast in December but down 13% from 12.36 billion bushels in 2011.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels, or 7%, from December and down 387 million bushels, or 39%, from 989 million bushels in 2012, the USDA said.
The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 667 million bushels.
U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bushels, unchanged from December but up 71 million bushels from 29 million bushels in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11.869 billion bushels, up 55 million bushels from 11.814 billion bushels in December but down 1.647 billion bushels, or 12%, from 13.516 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 300 million bushels, or 7%, from December but down 98 million bushels from 4.548 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5.867 billion bushels, unchanged from December (including corn for ethanol at 4.5 billion bushels and food and seed use at 1.367 billion bushels), but down 570 million bushels, or 9%, from 6.437 billion bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bushels for ethanol and 1.426 billion bushels for food and seed).
U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 950 million bushels, down 200 million bushels, or 17%, from 1.15 billion bushels in December and down 593 million bushels, or 38%, from 1.543 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.80-$8 a bushel in 2012-13, unchanged from December.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 135 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from December but down 34 million bushels, or 20%, from 169 million bushels in 2012.
The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was equal to the average trade expectation.
U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.971 billion forecast in December but down 79 million bushels, or 3%, from 3.094 billion bushels in 2011.
Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from December at 20 million bushels, but were up 4 million bushels from 2011-12.
Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3.204 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from 3.16 billion bushels in December but down 121 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.325 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Projected 2012-13 U.S. soybean crush was raised 35 million bushels from December to 1.605 billion bushels, but still was down 98 million bushels, or 6%, from 1.703 billion bushels crushed in 2011-12.
Exports were projected at 1.345 billion bushels, unchanged from December but down 17 million bushels, or 1%, from 1.362 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Total use was projected at 3.07 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from December, but down 85 million bushels from 3.155 billion bushels as the estimated use in 2011-12.
The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.50-$15 a bushel, down from $13.55-$15.55 a bushel projected in December but up from $12.50 a bushel in 2011-12.
World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 176.64 million tonnes, down 310,000 tonnes from December and down 19.14 million tonnes, or 10%, from 195.78 million tonnes in 2011-12.
Global corn ending stocks were projected at 115.99 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 1.62 million tonnes from December and down 15.8 million tonnes, or 12%, from 131.79 million tonnes a year earlier.
Soybean carryover for 2012-13 globally was projected at 59.46 million tonnes, down 470,000 tonnes from December but up 4.36 million tonnes from 55.10 million tonnes in 2011-12.
Brazilian 2012-13 soybean production was forecast at a record 82.5 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from December and up 16 million tonnes, or 24%, from 66.5 million tonnes a year earlier. Brazil’s soybean production was forecast to surpass that of the United States, estimated at 82.06 million tonnes for 2012-13, for the first time ever.
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