U.S. wheat futures fall on reduced export forecast

by World Grain Staff
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KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, U.S. — U.S. wheat futures prices fell sharply after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected a 50-million-bushel reduction in 2012-13 exports of U.S. wheat in its Dec. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.050 billion bushels (28.58 million tonnes), down 50 million bushels, or about 5%, from November and equal to 2011-12 estimated exports. At the same time, total world wheat exports for 2012-13 were projected at 132.77 million tonnes, up 80,000 tonnes from 132.69 million tonnes projected in November, with export increases forecast for Australia, the E.U.-27, North Africa, India and the F.S.U.-12 more than offsetting the U.S. decline.
“Projected exports are lowered 50 million bus reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies,” the USDA said. “U.S. exports are projected 45 million bushels lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bushels lower for hard red spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels.”
Nearby soft red winter wheat futures in Chicago closed about 27¢ a bushel lower, hard red winter wheat futures in Kansas City ended about 21¢ lower and hard red spring wheat futures in Minneapolis settled about 14¢ lower. Nearby corn and soybean futures posted small losses of about 2-4¢ a bushel in comparison to wheat.
U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 754 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 7%, from 704 million bushels as the November projection due to the reduction in forecast 2012-13 wheat exports, and up 11 million bushels, or 1%, from carryover of 743 million bushels estimated in 2012. The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 718 million bushels.
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