U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 7% from November

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 754 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 7%, from 704 million bushels as the November projection due to a reduction in forecast 2012-13 wheat exports, and up 11 million bushels, or 1%, from carryover of 743 million bushels estimated in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said Dec. 11 in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 718 million bushels.
The 2012-13 “all” wheat numbers were unchanged from November except for exports, total use, carryover and average price, which was lowered to a projected range of $7.70-$8.30 a bushel from $7.75-$8.45 as the November projection and compared with $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.
U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, unchanged from November and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.999 billion bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from November at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels for 2012-13, unchanged from November but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12. Feed and residual use was projected at 315 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 151 million bushels, or 92%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1.338 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 156 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.182 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.05 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or about 5%, from November and equal to 2011-12 estimated exports.
“Projected exports are lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies,” the USDA said. “U.S. exports are projected 45 million bushels lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bushels lower for hard red spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels.”
Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.388 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from November but up 157 million bushels, or 7%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 647 million bushels, unchanged from November but down 341 million bushels, or about 35%, from 988 million bushels in 2012, the USDA said.
The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 666 million bushels.
All 2012-13 U.S. corn projections were unchanged from November except average price, which was lowered to $6.80-$8 a bushel from $6.95-$8.25 a bushel projected in November and compared with $6.22 a bushel in 2011-12.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 7%, from 140 million bushels in November and down 39 million bushels, or 23%, from 169 million bushels in 2012.
The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was below the average of trade estimates that was near 135 million bushels.
Projected 2012-13 U.S. soybean crush was raised 10 million bushels from November to 1.57 billion bushels, but still was down 133 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.703 billion bushels crushed in 2011-12. Total use was projected at 3.031 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from November, reflecting the increased crush projection, but down 17 million bushels from 1.362 billion bushels as the estimated use in 2011-12.
The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.55-$15.55 a bushel, down from $13.90-$15.90 a bushel projected in November but up from $12.50 a bushel in 2011-12.
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