U.S. corn crop to hit lowest level since 2006

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2012 corn production was forecast at 10,705,729,000 bushels, down 21,635,000 bushels from 10,727,364,000 bushels forecast in September and down 13% from 12,358,412,000 bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Oct. 11 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 2,860,290,000 bushels, up 225,980,000 bushels, or 9%, from 2,634,310,000 bushels forecast in September but down 8% from 3,093,524,000 bushels last year.
If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 10,531,123,000 bushels in 2006, the USDA said.
The USDA corn number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 10.6 billion bushels. The soybean number also was above the pre-report average of about 2.7 billion bushels.
Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded sharply higher immediately after the report at 7:30 a.m. Central time.
Based on Oct. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 122 bushels an acre, down 0.8 bushels from 122.8 bushels forecast in September, down  25.2 bushels from 147.2 bushels an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 113.5 bushels an acre in 1995, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 87,721,000 acres, up 360,000 acres from September and up 4% from 83,981,000 acres in 2011.
Soybean yield was forecast at 37.8 bushels an acre, up 2.5 bushels from 35.3 bushels forecast in September but down 4.1 bushels from 41.9 bushels an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 33.9 bushels an acre in 2003. Harvested area was forecast at 75,693,000 acres, up 1,058,000 acres, or 1%, from 74,635,000 acres in September and up 3% from 73,776,000 acres in 2011.
Grain sorghum production in 2012 was forecast at 251,977,000 bushels, up 5,956,000 bushels, or 2%, from 246,021,000 bushels forecast in September and up 18% from 214,443,000 bushels in 2011.
The USDA estimated 2012 U.S. rice production at 198,860,000 cwts, up 2,542,000 cwts, or 1%, from 196,318,000 cwts forecast in September and up 7% from 185,009,000 cwts in 2011.
Peanut production in 2012 was forecast at 6,108.15 million lbs, up 188.7 million lbs, or 3%, from 5.919 million lbs in September and up 67%, from 3.658 million lbs in 2011.
The USDA does not update wheat production estimates in October.
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