U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 12% from September

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 654 million bushels, down 44 million bushels, or 6%, from 698 million bushels as the September projection and down 89 million bushels, or 12%, from 743 million bushels in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 627 million bushels.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 619 million bushels, down 114 million bushels, or 16%, from 733 million bushels in September and down 369 million bushels, or 37%, from the downwardly revised 988 million bushels estimated in 2012.
The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 645 million bushels.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 13%, from 115 million bushels in September, but down 39 million bushels, or 23%, from the upwardly revised 169 million bushels estimated for this year.
The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was below the average of trade estimates that was near 134 million bushels.
U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels for 2012, up 1 million bushels from September and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.999 billion bushels in 2012. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels for 2012-13, up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 315 million bushels, up 95 million bushels, or 43%, from September and up 151 million bushels, or 92%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1.338 billion bushels, up 95 million bushels, or 8%, from September and up 156 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.182 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,150 million bushels, down 50 million bushels from September but up 100 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.050 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.488 billion bushels, up 45 million bushels from September and up 257 million bushels, or 12%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.
The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.65-$8.55 a bushel, compared with $7.50-$8.70 a bushel projected in September and $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.
On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 195 million bushels, down 78 million bushels, or 29%, from 273 million bushels in September and down 122 million bushels, or 38%, from 317 million bushels in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 189 million bushels, up 30 million bushels, or 19%, from 159 million bushels in September and up 4 million bushels from 2012.
Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 170 million bushels, up 2 million bushels, or 1%, from 168 million bushels in September and up 19 million bushels, or 13%, from 151 million bushels in 2012.
White wheat carryover was projected at 61 million bushels in 2013, up 7 million bushels from September but down 3 million bushels from 2012.
Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 39 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from September but up 14 million bushels, or 56%, from 25 million bushels in 2012.
Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 653.05 million tonnes, down 5.68 million tonnes from September and down 42.64 million tonnes, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 695.69 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 678.22 million tonnes, down 2.44 million tonnes from September and down 17.24 million tonnes, or 2%, from an upwardly revised 695.46 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 130.87 million tonnes, down 3.96 million tonnes from 134.83 million tonnes in September and down 25.65 million tonnes, or 16%, from an upwardly revised 156.52 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 173 million tonnes, down 3.71 million tonnes from 176.71 million tonnes in September and down 25.17 million tonnes, or 13%, from an upwardly revised 198.17 million tonnes in 2011-12.
“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 6.2 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production for Australia, Russia and E.U.-27,” the USDA said. “Production for Australia is lowered 3 million tons as a continuation of dryness through September during critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop. Production for Russia is lowered 1 million tons reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat.”
U.S. corn production in 2012 was forecast at 10.706 billion bushels, down 21 million bushels from 10.727 billion bushels in September and down 1.652 billion bushels, or 13%, from 12.358 billion bushels in 2011. Imports in 2012-13 were projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 47 million bushels from 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11.769 billion bushels, down 214 million bushels, or 2%, from 11.983 billion bushels in September and down 1.745 billion bushels, or 13%, from 13.514 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.15 billion bushels, unchanged from September but down 412 million bushels, or 9%, from an upwardly revised 4.562 billion bushels in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5.85 billion bushels, unchanged from September (including corn for ethanol at 4.5 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.35 billion bushels, unchanged), but down 571 million bushels, or 9%, from an upwardly revised 6.421 billion bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5 billion bushels for ethanol and 1.421 billion bushels for food and seed, both up from September).
U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1.15 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.25 billion bushels in September and down 393 bushels, or 25%, from an upwardly revised 1.543 billion bushels the previous year.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.10-$8.50 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with $7.20-$8.60 in September and a downwardly revised $6.22 in 2011-12.
U.S. 2012 soybean production was forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 226 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.634 billion bushels in September but down 234 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.094 billion bushels in 2011. Soybean imports were projected at 20 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 4 million bushels from 2011-12.
Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3.05 billion bushels, up 265 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.785 billion bushels in September but down 275 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.325 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2.92 billion bushels, up 250 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.67 billion bushels in September but down 235 million bushels, or 7%, from a downwardly revised 3.155 billion bushels in 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1.54 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from September but down 163 million bushels, or 10%, from a downwardly revised 1.703 billion bushels in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1.265 billion bushels, up 210 million bushels, or 20%, from 1.055 billion bushels in September but down 95 million bushels, or 7%, from an unchanged 1.36 billion bushels in 2011-12. Residual was raised 1 million bushels from September to 26 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bushels.
The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $14.25-$16.25 a bushel, down from $15-$17 a bushel projected in September and compared with an upwardly revised $12.50 a bushel in 2011-12.
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