U.S. 2013 wheat carryover unchanged from August

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 698 million bushels, unchanged from the August projection but down 45 million bushels, or 6%, from 743 million bushels in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 709 million bushels.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 733 million bushels, up 83 million bushels, or 13%, from 650 million bushels in August but down 448 million bushels, or 38%, from 1,181 million bushels estimated in 2012.
The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 618 million bushels.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013 was projected at 115 million bushels, unchanged from August but down 15 million bushels, or 12%, from 130 million bushels estimated for this year and a nine-year low, the USDA said.
The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was above the average of trade estimates that was near 106 million bushels.
Except for price and some wheat-by-class projections, there were no changes from August in the USDA 2012-13 all wheat numbers. U.S. all wheat production was forecast at 2.268 billion bushels for 2012, unchanged from August and up 269 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.999 billion bushels in 2011. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,141 million bushels for 2012-13, up 167 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.
The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 220 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 57 million bushels, or 35%, from 163 million bushels in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1.243 billion bushels, up 62 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.181 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.200 billion bushels, unchanged from August and up 150 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.050 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.443 billion bushels, up 212 million bushels from last year.
The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.50-8.70 a bushel, down from $7.60-9.00 a bushel projected in August and compared with $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.
“Prices reported for the summer months, when producers typically market nearly half the crop, have remained well below cash bids and futures prices, suggesting substantial forward pricing by producers earlier in the year,” the USDA said.
On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 273 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 10%, from 248 million bushels in August but down 44 million bushels, or 14%, from 317 million bushels in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 159 million bushels, unchanged from August but down 26 million bushels, or 14%, from 185 million bushels in 2012.
Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 168 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 8%, from 183 million bushels in August but up 17 million bushels, or 11%, from 151 million bushels in 2012.
White wheat carryover was projected at 54 million bushels in 2013, down 10 million bushels from August and down 10 million bushels from 2012.
Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 44 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 18 million bushels, or 69%, from 26 million bushels in 2012.
Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 658.73 million tonnes, down 4.1 million tonnes from August and down 36.31 million tonnes, or 5%, from a downwardly revised 695.04 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 680.66 million tonnes, down 2.59 million tonnes from August and down 13.69 million tonnes, or 2%, from a downwardly revised 694.35 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 134.83 million tonnes, down 380,000 tonnes from 135.21 million tonnes in August and down 19.81 million tonnes, or 13%, from an upwardly revised 154.64 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 176.71 million tonnes, down 460,000 tonnes from 177.17 million tonnes in August and down 21.93 million tonnes, or 11%, from an upwardly revised 197.59 million tonnes in 2011-12.
“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected production in Russia. An increase in foreign beginning stocks partly offsets the projected 4.1-million-ton reduction in world wheat output,” the USDA said.
U.S. corn production in 2012 was forecast at 10.72 billion bushels, down 52 million bushels from 10.779 billion bushels in August and down 1.631 billion bushels, or 13%, from 12.358 billion bushels in 2011. Imports in 2012-13 were projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 50 million bushels from 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11.983 billion bushels, up 108 million bushels from 11.875 billion bushels in August but down 1.528 billion bushels, or 11%, from 13.511 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.15 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels, or 2%, from 4.075 billion bushels in August but down 250 million bushels, or 6%, from a downwardly revised 4.400 billion bushels 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,850 million bushels, unchanged from August (including corn for ethanol at 4.500 billion bushels, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1.350 billion bushels, unchanged), but down 540 million bushels, or 8%, from 6.39 billion bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5 billion bushels for ethanol and 1.39 billion bushels for food and seed, both unchanged from August).
U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 4%, from 1.3 billion bushels in August and down 290 bushels, or 19%, from a downwardly revised 1.54 billion bushels the previous year.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.20-8.60 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with $7.50-8.90 in August and $6.25 in 2011-12.
U.S. 2012 soybean production was forecast at 2.634 billion bushels, down 58 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.692 billion bushels in August and down 422 million bushels, or 14% from 3.056 billion bushels in 2011. Soybean imports were projected at 20 million bushels, unchanged from August but up 4 million bushels from an upwardly revised 16 million bushels in 2011-12. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 2.785 billion bushels, down 72 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.857 billion bushels in August and down 502 million bushels, or 15%, from an upwardly revised 3.287 billion bushels in 2011-12.
Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2.67 billion bushels, down 72 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.742 billion bushels in August and down 487 million bushels, or 15%, from an upwardly revised 3.157 billion bushels in 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1.5 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from August and down 205 million bushels, or 12%, from an upwardly revised 1.705 billion bushels in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1.055 billion bushels, down 55 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.11 billion bushels in August and down 305 million bushels, or 22%, from an upwardly revised 1.36 billion bushels in 2011-12. Residual was lowered 2 million bushels from August to 25 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bushels.
The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $15-17 a bushel, unchanged from August and compared with $12.45 a bushel in 2011-12.
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