U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up, corn declines

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 698 million bushels, up 34 million bushels, or 5%, from 664 million bushels projected in July but down 45 million bushels, or 6%, from 743 million bushels in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Aug. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

The projected USDA 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 680 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 650 million bushels, down 533 million bushels, or 45%, from 1.18 billion bushels in July and down 371 million bushels, or 36%, from an upwardly revised 1.02 billion bushels estimated in 2012.

The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was near the average of trade expectations of 651 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 12%, from 130 million bushels in July and down 30 million bushels, or 21%, from an downwardly revised 145 million bushels estimated for this year.

The USDA 2013 soybean carryover number was as expected by the trade.

U.S. all wheat production was forecast at 2.26 billion bushels for 2012, up 44 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.22 billion bushels in July and up 269 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.99 billion bushels in 2011. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.14 billion bushels for 2012-13, up 54 million bushels, or 2%, from July and up 167 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.97 billion bushels in 2011-12.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from July but up 9 million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bushels, also unchanged from July but down 4 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 220 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 10%, from 200 million bushels in July and up 57 million bushels, or 35%, from 163 million bushels in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1.24 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.22 billion bushels in July and up 62 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.18 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.2 billion bushels, unchanged from July and up 150 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.05 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.44 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from July and up 12 million bushels from 2.23 billion bushels last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.60-9 a bushels, up from $6.20-7.40 in July and compared with $7.24 in 2011-12.

“Tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year,” the USDA said.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 248 million bushels, down 18 million bushels, or 7%, from 266 million bushels in July and down 69 million bushels, or 22%, from 317 million bushels in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 159 million bushels, up 16 million bushels, or 11%, from 143 million bushels in July but down 26 million bushels, or 14%, from 185 million bushels in 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 183 million bushels, up 28 million bushels, or 18%, from 155 million bushels in July and up 32 million bushels, or 21%, from 151 million bushels in 2012.

White wheat carryover was projected at 64 million bushels in 2013, up 4 million bushels from July and unchanged from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 44 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from July and up 18 million bushels, or 69%, from 26 million bushels in 2012.

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 662.83 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from July and down 32.35 million tonnes, or 5%, from 695.18 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 683.25 million tonnes, up 3.19 million tonnes from July and down 12.31 million tonnes, or 18%, from 695.56 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 135.21 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from July but down 18.7 million tonnes, or 12%, from 153.91 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 177.17 million tonnes, down 5.27 million tonnes, or 3%, from July and down 20.42 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.59 million tonnes in 2011-12.

“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7-million-ton reduction in foreign production. Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output,” the USDA said.

U.S. corn production in 2012, the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 10.77 billion bushels, down 2.19 billion bushels, or 17%, from July and down 1.57 billion bushels, or 13%, from 12.35 billion bushels in 2011. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11.87 billion bushels, down 2.03 billion bushels, or 15%, from July and down 1.63 billion bushels, or 12%, from 13.51 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4.08 billion bushels, down 725 million bushels, or 15%, from 4,800 million bushels in July and down 475 million bushels, or 10%, from 4.55 billion bushels 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5.85 billion bushels, down 470 million bushels from July (including corn for ethanol at 4.5 billion bushels, down 400 million bushels, and food and seed use at 1.35 billion bushels, down 70 million bushels from July), and down 540 million bushels from 6.39 billion bushels in 2011-12 (including corn for ethanol down 500 million bushels from 2011-12 and food and seed use down 40 million bushels).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1.3 billion bushels, down 300 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.6 billion bushels in July and down 250 bushels, or 16%, from 1.55 billion bushels the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.50-8.90 a bushel, compared with $5.40-6.40 in July and $6.20-6.30 in 2011-12.

U.S. 2012 soybean production, also the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 358 million bushels, or 12%, from 3.05 billion bushels in July and down 364 million bushels, or 12% from 3.06 billion bushels in 2011. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 2.86 billion bushels, down 378 million bushels, or 12%, from 3.24 billion bushels in July and down 429 million bushels, or 13%, from 3.29 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2.74 billion bushels, down 363 million bushels, or 12%, from 3.11 billion bushels in July and down 399 million bushels, or 13%, from 3.14 billion bushels in 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from July and down 175 million bushels from 1.69 billion bushels in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1.11 billion bushels, down 260 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.37 billion bushels in July and down 240 million bushels, or 18%, from an upwardly revised 1.35 billion bushels in 2011-12. Residual was lowered 8 million bushels from July to 27 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $15-17 a bushels, up $2 from July and compared with $12.45 in 2011-12.

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