2013 U.S. corn carryover projected down 37%

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S.  – The projected 2013 carryover of U.S. wheat, corn and soybeans all were lowered from June projections in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, with the corn number slashed 37% due to hot, dry weather.

The projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was forecast at 664 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 4%, from 694 million bushels forecast in June and down 79 million bushels, or 11%, from a revised 743 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA projected carryover of corn in the U.S. on Sept. 1, 2013, at 1.183 billion bushels, down 698 million bushels, or 37%, from 1.881 billion bushels projected in June, but up 280 million bushels, or 31%, from a revised 903 million bushels forecast for the current year.

The USDA projected soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, at 130 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 7%, from 140 million bushels projected in June and down 40 million bushels, or 24%, from 170 million bushels forecast for the current year.

The USDA projected 2013 carryover numbers for the three major crops all were below the average of trade expectations that were near 725 million bushels for wheat, 1.232 billion bushels for corn and 134 million bushels for soybeans.

Wheat, corn and soybean futures traded higher after the release of the WASDE and Crop Production reports, with pit trading opening at 7:20 a.m. Central time while electronic trading continued uninterrupted.

For 2011-12, the USDA estimated beginning stocks and production were unchanged but imports were lowered by 5 million bushels, to 115 million bushels, resulting in total supply of 2.97 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from its June forecast. Use of wheat for food was estimated at 940 million bushels, unchanged from June. Seed use was estimated at 77 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from June, feed and residual at 169 million bushels, down 11 million bushels, and total domestic use at 1,186 million bushels, down 13 million bushels. Exports of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 were estimated at 1.048 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from the June estimate. Total wheat use in 2011-12 was estimated at 2,234 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from June, with carryover on June 1, 2012, estimated at 743 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from June. The 2011-12 all wheat average price was estimated at a record high $7.24 a bushel, down 1¢ from June.

The USDA projected U.S. 2012 wheat production at 2.224 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from its June projection. Imports in 2012-13 were unchanged at 120 million bushels. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 3.087 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from June and up 110 million bushels, or 4%, from 2.977 billion bushels last year.

Wheat used for food in 2012-13 was projected at 950 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from June and up 10 million bushels from 2011-12. Seed use was unchanged from June at 73 million. Feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 200 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from June but up 31 million bushels, or 18%, from 169 million bushels in 2011-12. Total 2012-13 domestic use was projected at 1.223 billion bushels, down 15 million bushels from June but up 37 million bushels, or 3%, from 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1.2 billion bushels in 2012-13, up 50 million bushels from June and up 152 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.048 billion bushels last year. Total use was projected at 2.423 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels, or 1%, from June and up 189 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.234 billion bushels in 2011-12.

The average price of all wheat paid to farmers in 2012-13 was projected to range from $6.20-$7.40 a bushel, up 60¢ on each end of the range from June and compared with a record $7.24 a bushel in 2011-12.

In its first by-class wheat projections for 2012-13, the USDA projected the carryover of hard red winter at 266 million bushels on June 1, 2013, down 51 million bushels from a lower-revised 317 million bushels in 2012. Hard spring carryover in 2013 was projected at 155 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from an upwardly-revised 151 million bushels in 2012. Soft red carryover was projected at 143 million bushels, down 42 million bushels from a lower-revised 185 million bushels in 2012. White wheat was projected at 60 million bushels in 2013, down 4 million bushels from 2012 carryover. Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 40 million bushels, up 14 million bushels from an upwardly-revised 26 million bushels in 2012.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 182.44 million tonnes, down 3.32 million tonnes from 185.75 million tonnes in June and down 14.74 million tonnes, or 7%, from 197.18 million tonnes estimated for 2011-12. World wheat production for 2012-13 was projected at 665.33 million tonnes, down 6.73 million tonnes from June and down 29.36 million tonnes, or 4%, from 694.69 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 680.06 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 1.81 million tonnes from June and down 14.68 million tonnes, or 2% from 694.74 million tonnes in 2011-12. World wheat exports were projected at 134.71 million tonnes, down 710,000 tonnes from June and down 15.69 million tonnes, or 10%, from 150.4 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Although not survey based, the USDA projected 2012 corn production at 12.97 billion bushels, down 1.82 billion bushels, or 12%, from 14.79 billion bushels projected in June. The production forecast was based on projected harvested area of 88.9 million acres, down 200,000 acres from the June projection, and average yield of 146 bushels an acre, down 20 bushels from 166 bushels an acre in June.

“Persistent and extreme June dryness across the central Plains to the Ohio River Valley have substantially lowered yield prospects across most of the major growing regions,” the USDA said.

For 2012-13 the USDA projected U.S. corn imports at 30 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from June and up 8 million bushels from 2011-12. Total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 13.903 billion bushels, down 1.753 billion bushels, or 11%, from June but up 395 million bushels, or 3%, from 13.508 billion bushels in the current year.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 4.8 billion bushels, down 650 million bushels, or 12%, from 5.45 billion bushels in June but up 250 million bushels, or 5%, from 4.55 billion bushels in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.32 billion bushels, down 105 million bushels from 6.425 billion bushels in June and down 135 million bushels from 6.455 billion bushels in 2011-12. Corn used for ethanol in 2012-13 was projected at 4.9 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from June and down 150 million bushels from 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 11.12 billion bushels, down 755 million bushels, or 6%, from June but up 115 million bushels from 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,600 million bushels in 2012-13, down 300 million bushels, or 16% from 1.9 billion bushels in June and unchanged from 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 12.72 billion bushels, down 1.055 billion bushels, or 8%, from 12.605 billion bushels in 2011-12.

The average price of corn in 2012-13 was projected to range from $540-$6.40 a bushel, up sharply from $4.20@5 in June.

For 2011-12, the USDA raised estimated U.S. corn imports by 2 million bushels, to 22 million bushels, resulting in total supply of 13.508 billion bushels, also up 2 million bushels from June. Domestic corn use in 2011-12 was unchanged from June at 11.005 billion bushels. Estimated U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were 1.6 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from June, resulting in total use of 12.605 billion bushels, also down 50 million bushels from June. Carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was estimated at 903 million bushels, up 52 million bushels from June.

The average price of corn paid to farmers in 2011-12 was estimated at $6.10-$6.30 a bushel, up from $5.95-$6.25 a bushel in June and from $5.18 in 2010-11.

World corn ending stocks in 2012-13 were projected at 134.09 million tonnes, down 21.65 million tonnes, or 14%, from 155.74 million tonnes projected in June but up 4.72 million tonnes, or 4%, from 129.37 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was projected at 3.05 billion bushels, down 155 million bushels, or 5%, from June and down 6 million bushels from 2011. Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3.235 billion bushels, down 160 million bushels from June and down 51 million bushels from 3.056 billion bushels in 2011-12.

Projected U.S. soybean crush in 2012-13 was 1.61 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels, or 2%, from the June projection and down 65 million bushels, or 4%, from an upwardly-revised 1.675 billion bushels in 2011-12. Exports of U.S. soybean in 2012-13 were projected at 1.37 billion bushels, down 115 million bushels, or 8%, from 1.485 billion bushels in June but up 30 million bushels, or 2%, from an upwardly revised 1.34 billion bushels in 2011-12. Seed use in 2012-12 was unchanged from June at 89 million bushels, and up 1 million bushels from 2011-12. Residual was projected at 35 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from June but up 22 million bushels from a downwardly-revised 13 million bushels in 2011-12.

The average price of soybeans paid to U.S. farmers in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13-$15 a bushel, up $1 from June and compared with $12.40 in the current year and $11.30 in 2010-11.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 55.66 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 2.88 million tonnes, or 5% from 58.54 million tonnes in June but up 3.15 million tonnes, or 6%, from 52.51 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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