U.S. winter wheat crop down 1% from May

by World Grain staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2012 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,683,667,000 bushels, down 10,043,000 bushels, or 1%, from 1,693,710,000 bushels forecast in May but up 189,990,000 bushels, or 13%, from 1,493,677,000 bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its June Crop Production report on June 12. In its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the USDA projected the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, at 694 million bushels, down 41 bushels, or 6%, from its initial forecast of 735 million bushels in May and down 34 million bushels, or 5%, from a revised 728 million bushels in 2012.
The USDA wheat production number was above analysts’ pre-report trade expectations, which averaged near 1.65 billion bushels.
The 2013 wheat carryover projection was below the average trade estimate of 728 million bushels.
The USDA forecast winter wheat yield at 47.3 bushels per acre based on conditions as of June 1, down 0.3 bushels from 47.6 bushels in May but up 1.1 bushels from 46.2 bushels in 2011. Harvested area was forecast at 35,580,000 acres, unchanged from May but up 10% from 32,314,000 acres a year ago.
Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 1,023,894,000 bushels, down 1% from 1,032,252,000 bushels forecast in May but up 31% from 780,089 bushels in 2011. Soft red winter outturn was forecast at 428,466,000 bushels, up slightly from 428,263,000 bushels in May, but down 6% from 457,535,000 bushels in 2011. White winter wheat production was forecast at 231,307,000 bushels, down 1% from 233,195,000 bushels in May and down 10% from 256,053,000 bushels in 2011, including soft white winter at 217,183,000 bushels, down from 219,135,000 bushels in May and from 243,685,000 bushels in 2011, and hard white winter at 14,124,000 bushels, up from 14,060,000 bushels in May and from 12,368,000 bushels in 2011.
The USDA numbers compared with pre-report trade expectations averaging near 996 million bushels for hard red winter wheat, 422 million bushels for soft red winter and 231 million bushels for white winter.
Total winter durum production in Arizona and California was estimated at 25,190,000 bushels, up 23% from 20,514,000 bushels in 2011, the USDA said.
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