U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 6% from May

by World Grain staff
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WASHINGTON — The carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was projected at 694 million bushels, down 41 million bushels from 735 million bushels in May and down 34 million bushels, or 5%, from 728 million bushels in 2012, which was reduced 40 million bushels, or 5%, from 768 million bushels forecast in May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

 

All 2011-12 all wheat supply numbers were unchanged from May, but use numbers were raised by 40 million bushels, resulting in a like reduction in carryover. Use of wheat for food was estimated at 940 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the May estimate, and 2011-12 exports were estimated at 1.055 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from May. The 2011-12 all wheat average price was unchanged from May at a record high $7.25 a bushel. The average price for 2012-13 was projected at $5.60@6.80 a bushel, up 10¢ from May on both sides of the range.

 

“The increase in 2011-12 food use reflects higher-than-expected flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American Millers’ Association,” the USDA said. “Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old crop marketing year.”

 

The USDA 2012 and 2013 carryover numbers both were below the average of pre-report trade expectations.

 

The USDA projected 2012 U.S. all wheat production at 2.234 billion bushels, down 11 million bushels from the May projection but up 12% from 1.999 billion bushels in 2011, based on harvested area projected at 49.2 million acres, unchanged from May but up about 8% from 45.7 million acres, and yield at 45.4 bushels an acre, down 0.3 bushels from May but up 1.7 bushels from 43.7 bushels an acre last year. U.S. wheat imports in 2012-13 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from May and from 2011-12. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3.082 billion bushels, down 51 million bushels, or 2%, from 3.133 billion bushels in May but up 100 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.982 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Wheat used for food in 2012-13 was projected at 945 million bushels, unchanged from May but up 5 million bushels from 2011-12. Seed use was unchanged from May at 73 million bushels, down 8% from 79 million bushels last year. Feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 220 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from May but up 40 million bushels, or 22%, from 180 million bushels in 2011-12. Total 2012-13 domestic use was projected at 1.238 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from May but up 39 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.199 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Exports were projected at 1.15 billion bushels in 2012-13, unchanged from May but up 95 million bushels, or 9%, from 1.055 billion bushels last year. Total use was projected at 2.388 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from May but up 134 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.254 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Changes were made to domestic use and export for 2011-12 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial 2012-13 wheat by-class projections will be released in July.

 

Carryover of hard winter wheat on June 1, 2012, was estimated at 324 million bushels, down 12 million bushels from the May forecast based on a 7-million-bushel increase in domestic food use, at 443 million bushels, and a 6-million-bushel increase in exports, at 401 million bushels. Total use was increased 12 million bushels from May to 843 million bushels.

 

Soft red winter wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from May, while supply was increased by 4 million bushels, to 666 million bushels, resulting in a rounded decrease in carryover at 194 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from May.

 

Hard spring wheat supply was lowered 2 million bushels from May, at 618 million bushels, domestic use was raised 3 million bushels, to 240 million bushels, exports were raised 6 million bushels, to 246 million bushels, resulting in carryover of 131 million bushels, down 12 million bushels from May.

 

White wheat exports were raised 7 million bushels, to 217 million bushels in 2011-12, resulting in a like decrease in carryover, estimated at 65 million bushels.

 

Durum supply was lowered 2 million bushels, exports were raised 1 million bushels, at 26 million bushels, and carryover was reduced 3 million bushels, to 14 million bushels.

 

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 185.76 million tonnes, down 2.37 million from 188.13 million tonnes in May and down 9.8 million tonnes, or 5%, from 195.56 million tonnes estimated for 2011-12. World wheat production for 2012-13 was projected at 672.06 million tonnes, down 5.5 million tonnes from May and down 22.11 million tonnes, or 3%, from 694.17 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 681.87 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 4.6 million tonnes from May and down 13.97 million tonnes, or 2%, from 695.84 million tonnes in 2011-12. World wheat exports were projected at 135.42 million tonnes, down 1.6 million tonnes from May and down 13.34 million tonnes, or 9%, from 148.76 million tonnes in 2011-12.

 

“World production for 2012-13 is lowered reflecting reduced crop prospects in several exporting countries, including Russia, E.U.-27, Turkey and the United States,” the USDA said. “Russia production is reduced 3 million tonnes due to a continuation of spring dryness in key winter wheat producing areas and indication of crop development problems resulting from winter freeze damage.”

 

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1.881 billion bushels, unchanged from the initial May projection but up 1.030 billion bushels, or 121%, from an unchanged 851 million bushels in 2012.

 

The USDA 2011-12 and 2012-13 U.S. corn carryover projections both were above average trade expectations.

 

All 2012-13 projections were unchanged from May. The USDA projected 2012 U.S. corn production at a record high 14.79 million bushels, up 20% from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4% and 6%, respectively, and yield of 166 bushels an acre, up 13% from 147.2 bushels in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20@5 a bushel in 2012-13, down from $5.95@6.25 a bushel forecast for 2011-12 and $5.18 a bushel in 2010-11.

 

U.S. total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 15.656 billion bushels, up 16% from 13.506 billion bushels in 2011-12, based on beginning stocks of 851 million bushels, imports of 15 million bushels (down 5 million bushels from 2011-12) and record 2012 production of 14.79 million bushels.

 

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 5.45 million bushels, up 900 million bushels, or 20%, from 4.55 million bushels in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.425 billion bushels, down 30 million bushels from 6.455 billion bushels 2011-12, based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from an upwardly revised 5.05 billion bushels for 2011-12, and food, seed and industrial at 1.425 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11.875 billion bushels in 2012-13, up 870 million bushels from a upwardly revised 11.005 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Exports were projected at 1.9 billion bushels in 2012-13, up 250 million bushels, or 15%, from a downwardly revised 1.650 billion bushels in 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 13.775 billion bushels, up 1.12 billion bushels, or 9%, from 12.655 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

World corn ending stocks in 2012-13 were projected at 155.74 million tonnes, up from 152.34 million tonnes projected in May and up 26.55 million tonnes, or 21%, from 129.19 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the May projection and down 35 million bushels, or 20%, from a downwardly revised 175 million bushels in 2012.

The 2012 and 2013 USDA soybean carryover numbers were below the average trade of expectations for both years.

 

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 58.54 million tonnes in 2012-13, up from 58.07 million tonnes for 2012-13, and up 5.18 million tonnes, or 10%, from 53.36 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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