U.S. 2013 wheat carryover 4% below 2012

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — In the first forecast for the 2012-13 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was projected at 735 million bushels, down 33 million bushels, or 4%, from the current year estimate of 768 million bushels, which was reduced 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 793 million bushels forecast in April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

All 2011-12 all wheat numbers were unchanged from April except for estimated exports, which were raised 25 million bushels, to 1.025 billion bushels, resulting in a like reduction in carryover. The average price, which was estimated at $7.25 a bushel, compared with a range of $7.20-$7.40 in April and $5.70 in 2010-11.

The initial all wheat average price for 2012-13 was projected at $5.50-$6.70 a bushel.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1.881 billion bushels, up 1.030 billion bushels, or 121%, from an upwardly revised 851 million bushels in 2012. The USDA projected 2012 U.S. corn production at a record high 14.79 billion bushels, up 20% from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4% and 6%, respectively, and yield of 166 bushels an acre, up 13% from 147.2 bushels in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20-$5 a bushel, down from $5.95-$6.25 a bushel forecast for the current year and $5.18 a bushel in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million bushels, or 31%, from an downwardly revised 210 million bushels in 2012. The USDA projected 2012 U.S. soybean production at 3.205 billion bushels, up 5% from 3.056 billion bushels in 2011, planted area at 73.9 million acres and harvested area at 73 million acres, both down 1%, and yield at 43.9 bushels an acre, up 6% from 41.5 bushels an acre in 2011. The average price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $12-$14 a bushel, compared with $12.35 this year and $11.30 in 2010-11.

For 2013, the USDA carryover number for wheat was below the average trade expectation near 805 million bushels and for soybeans also was below the average of expectation near 170 million bushels, but for corn was above the trade average that was near 1.704 billion bushels.

The USDA projected 2012 U.S. all wheat production at 2.245 billion bushels, up 12% from 1.999 billion bushels in 2011, based on harvested area projected at 49.2 million acres, up about 8% from 45.7 million acres, and yield at 45.7 bushels an acre, up 5% from 43.7 bushels an acre last year.