U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 4% from March

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 793 million bushels, down 32 million bushels, or 4%, from 825 million bushels forecast in March and down 69 million bushels, or 8%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The decrease was the result of a 35 million bushel increase in projected 2011-12 feed and residual use only partially offset by a 3 million bushels decrease in seed use.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was near the average trade expectation of 796 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bushels, unchanged from the March forecast and down 327 million bushels, or 29%, from 1.128 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was well above the average trade estimate of 717 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 250 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 9%, from 275 million bushels projected in March but up 35 million bushels, or 16%, from 215 million bushels in 2011. The USDA soybean carryover number also was just above the average pre-report trade estimate of 246 million bushels.

With the exception of seed use and feed and residual use, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from March. U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, unchanged from the March projection and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from March but up 23 million bushels, or 24%, from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, also unchanged from March but down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 289 million bushels, or 22%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 930 million bushels, unchanged from March but up 4 million bushels from 2010-11. Seed use was projected at 79 million bushels in 2011-12, down 3 million bushels from March but up 8 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bushels, up 35 million bushels, or 24%, from 145 million bushels in March and up 48 million bushels, or 27%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.189 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels from 2.157 billion bushels in March but down 228 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.417 billion bushels in 2010-11.

“Projected feed and residual use is raised 35 million bushels reflecting higher-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks,” the USDA said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.20-$7.40 a bushels, compared with $7.15-$7.45 a bushel projected in March, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, 2012 carryover was raised for hard winter and hard spring wheat but lowered for soft red, white and durum wheat.

The USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 351 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 4%, from March but down 35 million bushels, or 9%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 380 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from March, while domestic use was unchanged at 436 million bushels.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 143 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from March and down 42 million bushels, or 23%, from 185 million bushels in 2011. Hard spring supply in 2011-12 was forecast at 620 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from March, and domestic use was projected at 237 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from a month ago. Hard spring wheat exports were projected at 240 million bushels in 2011-12, unchanged from the March forecast.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 211 million bushels, down 32 million bushels, or 13%, from 243 million bushels in March but up 40 million bushels, or 23%, from 171 million bushels in 2011. Domestic supply in 2011-12 was projected 662 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from March, while domestic use was projected at 306 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 7%, from 286 million bushels in March. Soft red winter exports were projected at 145 million bushels for 2011-12, up 15 million bushels, or 12%, from 130 million bushels in 2010-11.

White wheat carryover was projected at 72 million bushels in 2012, down 15 million bushels, or 17%, from 87 million bushels in March and down 13 million bushels from 85 million bushels in 2011. White wheat domestic use in 2011-12 was projected at 126 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 14%, from 111 million bushels in March. White wheat export projections in 2011-12 were unchanged from March at 210 million bushels.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 17 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from March and down 18 million bushels, or 51%, from 35 million bushels in 2011. Durum supply in 2011-12 was projected at 126 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from March, while domestic use was projected at 84 million bushels, down 1 million bushels. Durum exports in 2011-12 were projected at 25 million bushels, unchanged from March.

“By-class shifts reflect the pace of (export) sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of U.S. soft red winter wheat into Europe, Egypt and Mexico,” the USDA said.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 694.32 million tonnes, up 300,000 tonnes from March, up 43.27 million tonnes, or 7%, from 651.05 million tonnes the prior year and 8.73 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.59 million tonnes in 2009-10, the USDA said. Global wheat use was projected at 686.76 million tonnes, up 2.83 million tonnes from March and up 31.92 million tonnes, or 5%, from 654.84 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 143.73 million tonnes, up 800,000 tonnes from March and up 11.39 million tonnes, or 9%, from 132.34 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 206.27 million tonnes, down 3.31 million tonnes from March but up 7.55 million tonnes, or 4%, from 198.72 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Except for a narrowing of the projected 2011-12 average price, all U.S. corn supply and demand data were unchanged from March. U.S. corn production in 2011 was estimated at 12.358 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 89 million bushels, or 1%, from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13.506 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 676 million bushels, or 5%, from 14.182 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.405 billion bushels in 2011-12, unchanged from March (including corn for ethanol at 5 billion bushels and food and seed use at 1.405 billion bushels), but down 23 million bushels from 6.428 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.6 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 193 million bushels, or 4%, from 4.793 billion bushels 2010-11.

“Prospects for feed and residual disappearance during the remainder of 2011-12 will be limited by an improving outlook for summer wheat feeding and the potential for 2012 new-crop corn use during August,” the USDA said.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.7 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 135 million bushels, or 7%, from 1.835 billion bushels a year ago.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6-$6.40 a bushel, compared with $5.90-$6.50 a bushel in March, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 122.71 million tonnes in 2011-12, down 1.82 million tonnes from March and down 2.31 million tonnes from 125.02 million tonnes in 2010-11. The change was mostly the result of a projected 3.2 million tonne decrease in projected domestic feed use, to 509.03 million tonnes in 2011-12, only partially offset by slight increases in production and exports.

For soybeans, both 2011-12 projected domestic use and exports were increased from March, as was the projected average price. U.S. 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 273 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from March but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.286 billion bushels, unchanged from March but down 209 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean crushings in 2011-12 were projected at 1.63 billion bushels, up 15 million bushels from March but down 18 million bushels from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.29 billion bushels, also up 15 million bushels from March but down 211 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.501 billion bushels in 2010-11. Residual was reduced by 4 million bushels from March, to 30 million bushels, and seed use was lowered 1 million bushels, to 86 million bushels. Total use soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3.036 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 1%, from 3.011 billion bushels in March, but down 244 million bushels, or 7%, from 3.28 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12-$12.50 a bushel in 2011-12, compared with $11.40-$12.60 a bushels projected in March, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

Global 2011-12 soybean ending stocks were projected at 55.52 million tonnes, down 1.78 million tonnes from March and down 13.6 million tonnes, or 20%, from 69.12 million tonnes in 2010-11. Global 2011-12 soybean production was projected at 240.15 million tonnes, down 4.92 million tonnes from March and down 24.07 million tonnes, or 9%, from 264.22 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Brazil 2011-12 soybean production was projected at 66 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from March and down 9.5 million tonnes, or 13%, from 75.5 million tonnes in 2010-11. Production in Argentina was projected at 45 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from March and down 4 million tonnes, or 8%, from 49 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 39 million cwts, down 1.5 million cwts from March and down 9.5 million cwts, or 20%, from 48.5 million cwts a year earlier. U.S. rice production in 2011 was estimated at 185 million cwts, unchanged from March but down 58.1 million cwts, or 24%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. Domestic use and residual were projected at 123 million cwts, down 1 million cwts from March and down 14.8 million cwts from 2010-11. Imports were projected at 20.5 million cwts, up 500,000 cwts from March and up 2.2 million cwts from 2010-11. Exports were projected at 92 million cwts, up 3 million cwts from March but down 19.6 million cwts, or 18%, from 111.6 million cwts in 2010-11.  The average farm price was projected to range from $13.80-$14.20 a cwt in 2011-12 compared with $13.90-$14.50 projected in March, $12.70 in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 103.29 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 2.96 million tonnes from 100.33 million tonnes in March, up 4.93 million tonnes from 98.36 million tonnes in 2010-11 and the largest since 2001-02, the USDA said.





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