U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 2% from February

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 825 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 2%, from 845 million bushels forecast in February and down 37 million bushels, or 4%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The decrease was the result of a 5 million bushel decrease in projected 2011-12 food use of wheat more than offset by a 25 million bushel increase projected exports.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 838 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bushels, unchanged from the February forecast but down 327 million bushels, or 29%, from 1.128 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate of 784 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bushels, also unchanged from February but up 60 million bushels, or 28%, from 215 million bushels in 2011.

The USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 257 million bushels.

With the exception of food use and exports, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from February. U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, unchanged from the February projection and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 23 million bushels, or 24%, from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, also unchanged from February but down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 975 million bushels in February but down 289 million bushels, or 22%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 930 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from February but up 4 million bushels from 2010-11. Seed use unchanged from February at 82 million bushels, up 11 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 13 million bushels, or 10%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.157 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2.137 billion bushels February but down 260 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.417 billion bushels in 2010-11.

“Projected food use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association,” the USDA said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.15-$7.45 a bushels, unchanged from February and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, export projections were increased from February by 10 million bushels each for hard red spring and white wheat and by 5 million bushels for durum.

The USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 336 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from February but down 50 million bushels, or 13%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 395 million bushels, unchanged from February, while domestic use was projected at 436 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from last month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 243 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 72 million bushels, or 42%, from 171 million bushels in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 142 million bushels, down 7 million bushels, or 5%, from February and down 43 million bushels, or 23%, from 185 million bushels in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 240 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 4%, from 230 million bushels in February, and domestic use was projected at 239 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from a month ago.

White wheat carryover was projected at 87 million bushels in 2012, down 10 million bushels, or 10%, from 97 million bushels in February but up 2 million bushels from 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 210 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 5%, from 200 million bushels in February.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 18 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from February and down 17 million bushels, or 49%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 694.02 million tonnes, up 1.14 million tonnes from February, up 42.51 million tonnes, or 7%, from 651.51 million tonnes the prior year and 8.43 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.59 million tonnes in 2009-10, the USDA said. Global wheat use was projected at 683.93 million tonnes, up 3.45 million tonnes from February and up 29.57 million tonnes, or 5%, from 654.36 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 142.93 million tonnes, up 2.68 million tonnes from February and up 11.11 million tonnes, or 8%, from 131.82 million tonnes in the prior year.

World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 209.58 million tonnes, down 3.52 million tonnes from February but up 10.09 million tonnes, or 5%, from 199.49 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Except for a narrowing of the projected 2011-12 average price, all U.S. corn supply and demand data were unchanged from February. U.S. corn production in 2011 was estimated at 12.358 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 89 million bushels, or 1%, from 12.447 billion bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13.506 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 676 million bushels, or 5%, from 14.182 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6.405 billion bushels in 2011-12, unchanged from February (including corn for ethanol at 5 billion bushels and food and seed use at 1.405 billion bushels), but down 23 million bushels from 6.428 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4.6 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 193 million bushels, or 4%, from 4.793 billion bushels 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1.7 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 135 million bushels, or 7%, from 1.835 billion bushels a year ago.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.90-$6.50 a bushel, compared with $5.80-$6.60 a bushel in February, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. soybean data for 2011-12 were mostly unchanged from February. The projected average price was increased. U.S. 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 273 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.329 billion bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3.286 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 209 million bushels, or 6%, from 3.495 billion bushels in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean crushings in 2011-12 were projected at 1.615 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 33 million bushels, or 2%, from 1.648 billion bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1.275 billion bushels, unchanged from February but down 226 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.501 billion bushels in 2010-11.

Residual was raised 2 million bushels from February, to 34 million bushels, and seed use was lowered 1 million bushels, to 87 million bushels, but due to rounding, total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was unchanged from February at 3.011 billion bushels, down 269 million bushels, or 8%, from 3.28 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.40-$12.60 a bushel in 2011-12, compared with $11.10-$12.30 a bushels projected in February, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 40.5 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from February but down 8 million cwts, or 16%, from 48.5 million cwts a year earlier. U.S. rice production in 2011 was estimated at 185 million cwts, unchanged from February but down 58.1 million cwts, or 24%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. Domestic use and residual were projected at 124 million cwts, unchanged from February but down 13.8 million cwts from 2010-11. Imports were projected at 20 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from February and up 1.7 million cwts from 2010-11.

Exports were projected at 89 million cwts, unchanged from February as a 1 million cwt reduction in rough rice exports offset a 1 million cwt increase in milled rice exports, and down 22.6 million cwts, or 20%, from 111.6 million cwts in 2010-11. The average farm price was projected to range from $13.90-$14.50 a cwt in 2011-12 unchanged from February and compared with $12.70 in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 100.33 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 210,000 tonnes from 100.12 million tonnes in February, up 2.53 million tonnes from 97.8 million tonnes in 2010-11 and the largest since 2002-03, the USDA said. Global rice production in 2011-12 was projected at a record high 465.4 million tonnes, up 2.65 million tonnes from February and up 12.18 million tonnes, or 3%, from 453.22 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Total consumption was projected at a record 462.88 million tonnes, up 3.02 million tonnes from February and up 13.27 million tonnes, or 3%, from 449.61 million tonnes in 2010-11. Most of the changes in production and consumption resulted from revised milling yield data from about 40 countries, the USDA said.





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