U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 3% from January

by World Grain Staff
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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 845 million bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 870 million bushels forecast in January and down 17 million bushels, or 2%, from 862 million bushels in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The decrease was the result of projected increased exports in 2011-12.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 868 million bushels.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bushels, down 45 million bushels, or 5%, from 846 million bushels in January and down 327 million bushels, or 29%, from 1.128 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was slightly above the average trade estimate near 797 million bushels.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bushels, unchanged from January and up 60 million bushels, or 28%, from 215 million bushels in 2011. The USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 269 million bushels.

With the exception of exports, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from January. U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1.999 billion bushels for 2011, unchanged from the January projection and down 208 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.207 billion bushels in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 23 million bushels, or 24%, from 97 million bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2.982 billion bushels for 2011-12, also unchanged from January but down 297 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.279 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 3%, from 950 million bushels in January but down 314 million bushels, or 24%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 935 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 9 million bushels from 926 million bushels in 2010-11. Seed use was unchanged from January at 82 million bushels, but was up 11 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bushels, unchanged January but up 13 million bushels, or 10%, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.137 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from 2,112 million bushels in January but down 280 million bushels, or 12%, from 2,417 million bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.15-$7.45 a bushels, compared with $6.95-$7.45 projected in January, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, increased export projections for hard red winter, white and soft red winter more than offset a reduction for hard red spring.

The USDA projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 333 million bushels, down 5 million bushels, or 1%, from 338 million bushels in January and down 53 million bushels, or 14%, from 386 million bushels in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 395 million bushels, up 5 million bushels, or 1%, from 390 million bushels the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 243 million bushels, down 15 million bushels, or 6%, from January but up 72 million bushels, or 42%, from 171 million bushels in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 13%, from January.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 149 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 7%, from January but down 36 million bushels, or 19%, from 185 million bushels in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 230 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 4%, from 240 million bushels in January.

White wheat carryover was projected at 97 million bushels in 2012, down 15 million bushels, or 13%, from 112 million bushels in January but up 12 million bushels, or 14%, from 85 million bushels in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 200 million bushels, up 15 million bushels, or 8%, from 185 million bushels in January.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 23 million bushels, unchanged from January and down 12 million bushels, or 34%, from 35 million bushels in 2011.



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